Highlights
- MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths are key players in developing a robust Western rare earth supply chain beyond China’s dominance.
- Both companies are making strategic advances:
- MP with Department of Defense (DoD) partnerships and Apple contracts.
- Lynas with global production expansion and Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) breakthroughs.
- Investors should view these companies as complementary ecosystem builders, not competing rivals, to ensure critical mineral independence.
In a recent analysis (opens in a new tab) from Zacks Investment Research, analyst Madhurima Das pits MP Materials (MP) against Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) in a head-to-head stock comparison. Both companies posted strong operational updates—MP with record NdPr metal output and new magnet deals with Apple and the DoD; Lynas with its first-ever commercial HREE separation outside China and milestone NdPr output from Mt Weld.
But here’s the problem: this is not a zero-sum game. Framing it as “MP vs. Lynas: who to bet on” misses the structural imperative of building out the entire _ex-China rare earth supply ecosystem_—from mine to magnet—in multiple geographies at once. This is of course the mission of _Rare Earth Exchanges (_REEx).
First, a reality check. MP’s scale-up is real: The company ramped NdPr metal production and inked major deals, including a $500M Apple recycling contract and a multi-billion DoD-backed magnet factory with a 15% Department of Defense (DoD) equity interest. Second, Lynas continues to deliver. How about record NdPr output, HREE production at Kuantan, and ongoing expansion at Mt Weld and Texas Show execution is solid.
Third, we must emphasize that the China risk is front and center. MP’s revenue hit from halting China-bound exports highlights how geopolitical tailwinds and trade policy are reshaping rare earth markets.
What’s Missing?
When reviewing Zach Investment Research’s piece, just the presentation of which is the better buy exhibits flawed logic.
Zacks compares near-term earnings estimates and price-to-sales ratios but ignores the macro necessity of both companies thriving. The West needs multiple vertically integrated REE players, not just one winner.
The investment analyst ignores the heavy rare-earth elements. Lynas’ breakthrough in Tb and Dy production is a milestone, yet the analysis underweights its strategic value as the first non-China source in decades.
And geography is not equal to redundancy. MP is U.S.-centric. Lynas covers Australia and Malaysia and is expanding in Texas. That’s not duplication—that’s diversification.
Final Word: Don’t Pick a Side—Back the Ecosystem
Investors shouldn’t view MP and Lynas as rivals in a cage match. They’re cornerstones in a nascent, fragile, rapidly evolving ex-China rare earth supply chain. It’s the dawn of a new re-industrialization era in the West. If even one fails, supply gaps persist, prices spike, and geopolitical risk grows.
Zacks’ “winner-take-all” framing misses this critical context. The real play? Bet on both—and the secure, diversified future they’re building.
Rare Earth Exchanges™ brings insight to investors navigating the high-stakes world of critical mineral independence.
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