• U.S. rare earth subsidies are tied to Chinese price benchmarks, giving Beijing fiscal leverage over American taxpayer payments regardless of Western production capacity.
• True pricing independence requires more than mines—it demands liquid physical markets, verifiable trades, delivery infrastructure, and clearing mechanisms that don't exist outside China yet.
• China's dominance stems from controlling both molecules and markets: 70% of mining, 90% of separation, 90% of magnets—and the price discovery that comes with physical throughput.

So rare earth prices rallied above $110 per kilogram, meaning U.S. taxpayers may not need to subsidize MP Materials under its price-floor agreement with the U.S. Department of Defense — for now. But the contract references a Chinese ex-works NdPr index. China still sets thescoreboard. The rally feels like a win. Until you notice who controlsthe referee. The quiet twist in today’s rare earth economy is this: the West is building mines, separation plants, and magnet facilities — yet still renting the pricing brain from Beijing.

The Subsidy Paradox: “We’re Winning”… on China’s Dial

Under the 2025 DoD agreement, MP’s NdPr oxide output is protected by a $110/kg floor, with the U.S. government sharing 30% of the upside above that level. The reference price? An ex-works China NdPr index.

If your safety net is triggered by a Chinese benchmark, you have outsourced the switch that turns U.S. payments on and off.

Prices rise, and Washington smiles. Prices fall — whether due to market dynamics, export controls, or managed supply — and Washingtonpays.

That is not just pricing power. It is fiscal leverage embedded in an index.

Midway through today’s column, Reuters (opens in a new tab) metals columnist Andy Home makes the core point clearly: the West needs not only production, but its own pricing mechanism to loosen China’s chokehold.

The Liquidity Trap: You Can’t Print a Market

China dominates price discovery because it dominates physical liquidity. It controls roughly 70% of rare earth mining, around 90% of separation, and more than 90% of magnet production.

And here lies another paradox: you cannot conjure Western price discovery without Western physical trade. Futures contracts without deliverable depth risk becoming theatre — especially for NdPr oxide, where impurity thresholds, oxide ratios (Pr₆O₁₁ 25%, Nd₂O₃ 75%), logistics terms, and magnet-grade qualification determine real-world pricing.

Lithium provides a template. But rare earths are not lithium. NdPr is not a fungible barrel. It is a chemistry contract. This is a challenge.

The “Escape Clause” That Still Orbits China

The DoD agreement allows a switch to an “internationally recognized” ex-China index — if one emerges. And there are some rumblings out there.

But an index is onlyas credible as the transactions behind it.

Ex-China pricing requires:

• Verifiable physical trades
• Transparent specifications
• Auditable reporting
• Liquid delivery hubs (CIF allied markets, not just ex-works narratives)
• Clearing and hedging infrastructure trusted by financiers

Otherwise, you are publishing indications and isolated contract points — not true market prices.

China anchors the reference price because it anchors the physical market. This, of course, will change over time.

Molecules + Markets

China’s dominance is not merely about ore bodies or separation plants. It is the fusion of molecules and markets — physical supply and price discovery reinforcing each other.

Break one without the other, and you remain tethered.

The West does not simply need “a new price.” It needs a durable market architecture anchored in physical throughput — mining, separation, metallurgy, and magnet production operating at a commercial scale.

Until that capacity is built and sustained, independence will remain aspirational — supported by rhetoric, but constrained by infrastructure.