Highlights

• REEx forecasts a median timeline for 50% U.S. magnet resilience in the early 2040s (2039–2046), with 2035 targets remaining low probability without accelerated heavy rare earth separation capacity outside China.
• True resilience requires both domestic magnet manufacturing and independence from Chinese-controlled chokepoints including heavy rare earth separation, licensing regimes, and processing technologies.
• Heavy rare earth separation remains the decisive bottleneck, with U.S. import reliance effectively total and most global processing capacity China-based despite alternative deposits in Brazil, Australia, and Africa.

Mine-to-magnet “resilience” is often reduced to headline announcements about new plants or federal investments. In reality, resilience is a stress-test question: what share of U.S. magnet demand could be met if China sharply restricted exports of magnets, heavy rare earth oxides, enabling technologies, or licensing approvals? Under that stricter definition, Rare Earth Exchanges™ (REEx) places the median timeline for achieving 50% U.S. resilience in the early 2040s, with an 80% confidence band stretching roughly 2039–2046. Earlier targets—especially 50% by 2035—remain low probability unless heavy rare earth (HREE) separation scales outside China far faster than current evidence suggests. The constraint is not capital alone. It is chemistry, heavy rare earth access, separation complexity, workforce expertise, qualification cycles, and pricing architecture—combined a level of industrial policy not seen in the West.

Resilience is not a single number but two overlapping capabilities: (1) manufacturing magnets outside China, and (2) doing so without reliance on Chinese-controlled chokepoints—particularly heavy rare earth separation, licensing regimes, processing technologies, and pricing benchmarks embedded in contracts. Using a 2024 effective demand baseline of roughly 35–45 thousand tonnes annually (P50 ≈ 40 kt), the United States must build capacity fast enough not only to grow supply—but to outpace rising demand from EVs, hybrids, robotics, drones, AI-enabled industrial systems, and defense. Meanwhile, China’s expanding export controls, quota opacity, and domestic demand stimulation through greenification and digitization amplify volatility. Resilience must grow faster than demand to close the vulnerability gap—and that is the central challenge.

Light rare earth supply may become increasingly addressable over the next several years, but heavy rare earth separation remains the decisive variable. The vast majority of HREE processing capacity remains China-based, and U.S. import reliance for heavy compounds is effectively total. Even where alternative deposits exist—in Brazil, Australia, Africa, and elsewhere—separation plants require multi-year construction, environmental approvals, metallurgical scaling, and automotive/defense qualification. Absent a coordinated industrial strategy comparable to historic national mobilization efforts, REEx forecasts a gradual climb: ~20% resilience around 2030, ~30% in the early 2030s, ~40% in the late 2030s, and ~50% in the early 2040s. The 2030 narrative may be political. The 2040 horizon is industrial.

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