Highlights

• The DRC offers strategic critical minerals, especially cobalt and copper, to the US in exchange for security and infrastructure investment.
• China currently dominates the DRC's mineral sector, controlling 15 of 19 cobalt-copper projects, with significant market power.
• The US-DRC minerals diplomacy represents a potential paradigm shift in global mineral supply chains and geopolitical cooperation.

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In the latest Mapping Minerals Diplomacy episode, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) lead Gracelin Baskaran hosts Guy Robert Lukama, Chairman of Gécamines—the DRC’s state-owned mining company—for a wide-ranging discussion on the high-stakes minerals diplomacy unfolding between the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Against a backdrop of escalating conflict in the eastern DRC with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, President Félix Tshisekedi is offering the U.S. access to strategic critical minerals—especially cobalt and copper—in exchange for security and infrastructure investment.

Key Takeaways—What CSIS and Lukama Reveal Accurately

• DRC’s Geological Superpower Status: CSIS correctly emphasizes the DRC’s unparalleled mineral endowment. With copper ore grades four times the global average and 74% of the world’s cobalt supply, the DRC remains the global epicenter of battery metals. Only 20% of the country is geologically mapped, pointing to immense untapped potential.

• Chinese Dominance and Market Power: The episode rightly flags China’s overwhelming control: Chinese firms hold equity in 15 of the DRC’s 19 cobalt-copper projects. China Molybdenum (CMOC) nearly doubled production in 2024, despite a price crash, forcing Western producers like Glencore to scale back. The DRC’s February 2025 cobalt export ban—extended through September—was an explicit move to stabilize prices and curb Chinese oversupply.

• Energy, Transport, and Governance Bottlenecks: CSIS identifies core barriers to investment: poor infrastructure, low electrification (just 20% of DRC’s population has access), regulatory opacity, and conflict risk. The U.S.-backed Lobito Corridor rail network is positioned as a transformative export route for Congolese minerals to Western markets.

• A Shift to Responsible Mining Frameworks: Lukama outlines a pivot from raw mineral exports toward local refining and value-added processing. He calls for new PPP models, improved skills transfer, tax reform, and a differentiated fiscal regime for greenfield exploration vs. brownfield production. Notably, the DRC’s ban on cobalt exports is framed not as resource nationalism but as a price stabilization and supply chain diversification strategy.

Critical Omissions & Speculation

• Security Assistance Details: While the report notes Tshisekedi’s offer of minerals in exchange for security support, it sidesteps what that assistance entails. Are U.S. forces involved? Is this aid economic, military, or logistical?

• Child Labor and ASM Oversight: Despite direct reference to past human rights abuses, Lukama minimizes the connection between mining and violations like child labor, stating, “We don’t necessarily have a strong correlation.” Does this statement contradict multiple UN and NGO reports? Particularly involving cobalt mined via artisanal small-scale mining (ASM)?

• Transparency on U.S. Strategy: Though the U.S. administration’s pivot to “clear milestones” is praised, there’s little scrutiny of whether U.S. companies are willing—or structurally prepared—to compete with Chinese firms in high-risk, capital-intensive jurisdictions like the DRC.

• Environmental Impact: The episode acknowledges the need for “responsible mining,” but there’s little depth on ecological degradation, tailings management, or post-extraction remediation—especially given the DRC’s biodiversity and fragile water systems.

Conclusion and Implications for Investors

The CSIS discussion offers a credible, data-backed overview of why the DRC is the most strategically significant node in the global critical minerals supply chain. Investors should monitor U.S. diplomatic engagement closely: the DRC is not only a source of cobalt and copper but also a bellwether for how the U.S. may structure future mineral-for-security pacts in Africa and beyond. However, any engagement must reckon with real challenges: endemic corruption, infrastructure gaps, volatile security, and ESG credibility.

This CSIS-hosted dialogue offers a realistic overview of the mineral and geopolitical dynamics surrounding U.S.-DRC cooperation, backed by data and credible sourcing. However, the report's tone leans optimistic, possibly reflecting U.S. diplomatic goals. While the economic rationale for engagement is clear, issues around human rights, environmental standards, and actual Western investment readiness remain underdeveloped or strategically sidestepped, at least for now.

Rare Earth Exchanges™ (REEx) will continue tracking the evolving U.S.–DRC framework, the implementation of the cobalt export ban, and shifts in market share among Chinese, Western, and regional operators.

Watch the full episode: Mapping Minerals Diplomacy – CSIS YouTube (opens in a new tab)

Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) | Host: Gracelin Baskaran