Highlights

• Leaked Trump plan proposes restoring Russian energy flows to Europe and opening U.S. investment into Russian rare earth extraction and Arctic drilling.
• Plan includes using $200 billion in frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction.
• The proposal aims to diversify global rare earth supply away from China's 85-90% dominance.
• Plan seeks to access Russia's underdeveloped deposits in Murmansk, Arctic, and Yakutia regions.
• Built-in contradictions include simultaneously punishing and rewarding Russia.
• Risk of a dependency swap from China to another authoritarian supplier.
• Potentially legitimizes Russian occupation of Ukrainian infrastructure.

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A Reuters-reported blueprint (opens in a new tab) attributed to President Donald Trump could reverberate across global commodities markets. According to the Wall Street Journal’s leaked appendices—shared with European counterparts—the plan proposes restoring Russian oil and gas flows to Europe, opening U.S. investment into Russian rare earth extraction and Arctic drilling, and using $200 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, including a U.S.-built data center powered by the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

If accurate, the proposal attempts something extraordinary: drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing by reintegrating Russia into Western critical-mineral and energy markets while extracting value from Russia to stabilize Ukraine. One European official likened it to an economic version of the 1945 Yalta Conference.

The Rare Earth Play: Courting Siberia

For Rare Earth Exchanges readers, the standout item is the suggestion that U.S. firms could enter Russia’s rare earth sector—an area historically treated as sovereign and strategic. Russia’s REE deposits in Murmansk, the Arctic, and Yakutia are meaningful yet underdeveloped; tapping them could diversify global supply away from China, which still controls 85–90% of refining capacity.

What Tracks With Known Facts

• Russia does possess large, underdeveloped REE resources.
• The U.S. has openly sought diversification away from China’s overwhelming dominance.
• A non-Chinese REE source at industrial scale would have significant market impact.

Where We Enter the Fog

No formal U.S. policy document confirms these proposals. The reporting relies on leaked materials and unnamed officials. And the financing mechanism—using frozen sovereign assets—remains legally contested across Europe and the U.S.

The Blueprint’s Built-In Contradictions

The architecture of the plan contains tensions rarely addressed in early reporting:

• Punish Russia / Reward Russia. Using frozen assets to fund Ukraine while reopening Russian energy markets and drilling partnerships sends mixed incentives.
• Diversification or Dependency Swap? Reducing reliance on China by leaning on Russia—another authoritarian resource supplier deeply tied to Beijing—risks trading one strategic dependency for another.
• Sanctions vs. Strategy. Restoring Russian hydrocarbons contradicts three years of Western energy diversification and could undercut U.S. LNG competitiveness.
• Legitimizing Occupation. A data center powered by a Russian-held Ukrainian nuclear plant could entrench, not unwind, Russian battlefield gains.

Why Investors Should Care

Rare earth markets move on geopolitics, not geology. If the West gains access to Russian REEs, would China’s dominance face its first large-scale competitor in years? Or would it not matter less comprehensive industrial policy due to the choke points we discuss continuously?  And what if the plan collapses, the Beijing–Moscow axis only tightens. Either outcome could materially shape mining equities, magnet supply chains, EV components, and defense procurement.

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