Highlights

• China currently controls 85-95% of global rare earth production and processing, creating a critical vulnerability in the US supply chain.
• The US faces significant hurdles in developing domestic rare earth capabilities, with permitting timelines ranging from 15-29 years.
• No single mine can guarantee rare earth independence; a comprehensive, integrated supply chain strategy is essential.

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Scripps News paints a picture of Montana’s Sheep Creek as a “mother lode” of rare earth riches. U.S. Critical Materials’ executive chair Harvey Kaye boldly described the deposit as the “highest grade” ever found in America, with billions in value. That’s attention-grabbing, but retail and institutional investors should remember: no independent resource estimate, feasibility study, or NI 43-101 equivalent has been released. Without those, claims of “billions” remain speculative rather than bankable.

What Rings True: China’s Grip

The piece yesterday correctly underscores China's dominance—about 85% of global rare earth output and up to 95% of processing capacity. This concentration is a matter of record and remains the single greatest vulnerability in the U.S. supply chain. The reference to U.S. defense hardware, such as the F-35, requiring nearly a half-ton of rare earths, is consistent with established Pentagon figures. Here, the reporting is on solid ground.

Glitter in the Lab Coats

Highlighting Idaho National Laboratory’s work on sustainable recovery—via e-waste recycling, coal ash separation, and novel electrochemical processes—adds depth. These programs exist and align with DOE research roadmaps. But the narrative risks overstating near-term readiness. Scaling from promising lab tests to industrial production is a multi-year, capital-intensive process. Investors should view this as long-lead research, not immediate supply.

Where the Story Tilts

By giving U.S. Critical Materials the microphone, Scripps subtly positions Sheep Creek as the face of American rare earth independence. That’s a narrative convenient to private equity and lobbying interests. What’s missing is balance: mention of competing U.S. projects (Texas Mineral Resources, Energy Fuels/White Mesa, and, of course, the American treasure trove MP Materials’ Mountain Pass) or the fact that the treasure trove (Mountain Pass) is the only operational mine today, with Chinese ownership ties complicating the story. The omission creates an impression of inevitability around Sheep Creek that doesn’t square with the broader industry landscape.

Why This Matters for Investors

The real story here is not whether a single Montana mine will save America, but how long it takes the U.S. to rebuild an integrated rare earth supply chain. Permitting timelines of 15–29 years, as the article notes, underscore that risk. But Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) recent forecast at the current rate, it would take the USA 15 years to achieve 50% of refining done domestically or with allies.   While federal funding ($400M+ from DoD, Trump’s executive order on stockpiling) points to strategic intent, the gap between policy and execution remains wide,  extra wide according to REEx.

Bottom Line

Scripps News delivers a dramatic, partly accurate snapshot of America’s rare earth predicament but leaves nuance behind in favor of a single company’s narrative. Investors should parse Sheep Creek’s claims carefully and remember: no one mine delivers independence—the chain is only as strong as its weakest processing link.

Source: Scripps News (opens in a new tab), Sept. 17, 2025.

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