Highlights

• New Murdoch University research shows ASEAN could become a major global supplier of critical magnet metals for electric vehicles and wind turbines through expanded mining, refining capacity, and recycling infrastructure by mid-century.
• The study models future supply scenarios for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, finding that recycling could meet significant demand by 2050 while current supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks.
• ASEAN's transformation from peripheral supplier to strategic rare-earth hub requires sustained investment in environmentally responsible mining, regional processing capacity, and cross-border collaboration to reduce dependence on China.

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A new analysis led by Muhammad Saladin Islami (opens in a new tab), working with corresponding author Tania Urmee (opens in a new tab), along with Christopher Lund, and Parisa A. Bahri all of Murdoch University in Australia, explores how Southeast Asia could become a pivotal player in the global rare-earth supply chain powering electric vehicles and renewable energy. Published in the 2026 book Critical Minerals Supply Chains Security and Resiliency in the ASEAN, the research models future supply scenarios for four critical magnet metals—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—essential to electric vehicles and wind turbines. The authors conclude that ASEAN could become a major contributor to global rare-earth supply, but only through a balanced strategy combining expanded mining, new refining capacity, large-scale recycling, and stronger regional cooperation. Without those changes, the region risks remaining dependent on external processing—particularly from China—while facing environmental and geopolitical risks tied to existing rare-earth operations in countries such as Myanmar and Vietnam.

Professor Tania Urmee, Corresponding Author

Study Methods: Modeling the Future Rare-Earth Supply Chain

The researchers conducted a scenario-based supply chain analysis focused on ASEAN’s ability to meet rising demand for permanent-magnet materials used in clean energy technologies. The study examined both supply-side factors—mining capacity, processing infrastructure, and geopolitical constraints—and demand-side dynamics, including electric vehicle growth and renewable energy expansion.

Using datasets from international agencies, academic studies, and ASEAN statistical sources, the authors constructed projections for rare-earth demand through 2050. They evaluated multiple development pathways, including expanded mining, improved refining capacity, substitution technologies, and recycling.

The modeling focused on four magnet metals critical to modern energy systems:

• Neodymium (Nd)
• Praseodymium (Pr)
• Dysprosium (Dy)
• Terbium (Tb)

These elements form the backbone of high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbine generators.

Key Findings: ASEAN’s Emerging Role

The study highlights several importantinsights.

First, demand will surge. Global electrification and renewable power deployment are expected to drive substantial increases in magnet-metal demand. Electric vehicles and wind turbines alone could multiply demand for Nd-Pr magnets over the coming decades.

Second, ASEAN holds meaningful geological potential. Countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Myanmar possess rare-earth resources or downstream processing capacity that could support expanded production.

Third, recycling could become a major source of supply. By mid-century, recycling from end-of-life electronics, magnets, and electric vehicles could supply a significant portion of rare-earth demand—provided the technology and collection infrastructure mature.  Finally, supply chains remain vulnerable. The authors note geopolitical instability, environmental challenges, and limited refining capacity as key obstacles to ASEAN becoming a major rare-earth hub.

Limitations of the Study

The analysis relies heavily on scenario modeling and policy assumptions, which introduces uncertainty. Future rare-earth markets depend on technology adoption, breakthrough recycling, environmental regulations, and geopolitical developments—factors that are difficult to predict accurately decades in advance. The study also does not deeply analyze industrial processing bottlenecks, particularly separation technologies that remain concentrated in China.

Implications for Global Supply Chains

The findings reinforce a central reality of the energy transition: rare-earth supply chains must expand and diversify rapidly. ASEAN could become an important contributor to global supply, but only if governments invest in environmentally responsible mining, develop regional refining capacity, and support recycling technologies. For policymakers and investors, the message is clear. Building resilient rare-earth supply chains will require long-term coordination across mining, processing, manufacturing, and recycling.

Conclusion

ASEAN stands at a strategic crossroads in the global race for rare-earth supply. The study suggests the region could evolve from a peripheral supplier into a meaningful pillar of the clean-energy mineral ecosystem. Achieving that outcome will demand sustained investment, technological innovation, and cross-border collaboration. Without these efforts, the rare-earth market may remain concentrated in a handful of countries—leaving global energy and defense supply chains vulnerable.

Citation

Islami, M. S., Urmee, T., Lund, C., & Bahri, P. A. (2026). Future Projections and Scenarios for a Sustainable Rare-Earth Elements Supply Chain in the ASEAN Region (opens in a new tab). In Critical Minerals Supply Chains Security and Resiliency in the ASEAN, Vol. 2. Springer Nature.