Highlights

• Trump's executive order could impose tariffs on mineral imports.
• Potential exemptions might be available for close allies like Australia.
• Australian executives are optimistic about potential US investment.
• There are opportunities for strategic alignment in the critical minerals supply chain.
• Securing exemptions could strengthen Australia's role as a preferred US partner outside China in critical mineral development.

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Australia may secure exemptions from Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on processed critical minerals, with a White House announcement expected later this month to coincide with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit. Sources told The Australian that U.S. officials, under Trump’s executive order investigating national security risks in mineral imports, are moving toward new restrictions—but possibly sparing allies like Australia.

Shifting Tone in Washington

Australian executives, including Andrew Tong (Cobalt Blue Holdings), Angus Barker (Australian Rare Earths), and Darryl Cuzzubbo (Arafura Rare Earths), returned from Washington with optimism, noting what they described as a sharper, more commercial focus in the Trump administration compared to Biden’s. Officials were portrayed as “business operators” looking to execute investment-driven deals quickly, rather than engaging in drawn-out bureaucratic consultations.

The Core Facts vs. The Spin

• What’s confirmed: Trump’s April executive order did direct the Department of Commerce to study critical mineral imports, opening the door for tariffs. Britain’s exemption from higher lumber tariffs adds credibility to the possibility of carve-outs for close allies.
• What’s still speculative: No exemption for Australia has been announced, and White House's silence means the optimism voiced by Australian executives remains aspirational. Sources in Canberra caution, “a long way to go.”
• Investor takeaway: Australian firms are keen to frame Washington’s tone as supportive. But the rhetoric of “sweet spot” opportunities may overstate what remains, for now, preliminary positioning.

Implications for the Rare Earth Supply Chain

If Australia secures exemptions and deeper alignment with the U.S., it would strengthen Canberra’s role as Washington’s preferred partner outside China, reinforcing projects like Arafura’s Nolan (opens in a new tab)s, Australian Rare Earths’ Koppamurra (opens in a new tab), and Cobalt Blue’s Broken Hill (opens in a new tab). Exemption status could tilt U.S. financing flows toward Australian projects, undercutting competitors in Africa or Latin America that may face tariffs.

Yet the underlying question remains: Will Trump’s tariffs fragment global supply chains further, or will carve-outs merely create a club of preferred allies? For Australia, being inside that club could mean faster off-takes, greater U.S. equity participation, and a stronger hedge against China’s dominance.

Bottom Line

Optimism in Canberra and Washington meetings signals momentum, but investors should remain cautious until exemptions are formally declared. For now, Australia’s role in U.S. critical mineral strategy is strengthening—but the deal-making remains unfinished.

Source: Matthew Cranston, The Australian

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