Highlights

• Australia is developing an alternative rare earth processing hub with Iluka's Eneabba refinery.
• This development is backed by a A$1.65 billion government loan.
• Allied governments are implementing demand-side supports such as price floors and guaranteed offtake to challenge China's 85-90% market control.
• While progress is credible, the West still needs multiple refineries, diversified feedstock, and price-stability tools to truly compete.

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ABC’s 7.30 says China holds a “chokehold” on rare earths and asks whether Australia can be the alternative—spotlighting Iluka’s Eneabba refinery and policy ideas like a price floor.  China does control the lion’s share of processing—~85–90%—and has leveraged it before (notably the 2010 Japan episode). Those stakes are real.

Then there’s Iluka’s Eneabba refinery, backed by an Australian government loan of A$1.65 billion, slated to commission in 2027. The firm is positioning Western Australia (WA) as a non-China separation hub. Lynas remains the only significant producer of separated rare earths outside China, now including heavy REEs. That’s a critical anchor for any ex-China supply.

The news Down Under also cites the U.S. and the setting of an NdPr price floor this year: the Pentagon’s MP Materials deal guarantees $110/kg for 10 years, plus magnet offtake—evidence that price supports are policy-viable.

Where the Ground Gets Squishy (Speculation watch)

“Alternative supplier” status ex-China hinges on more than one refinery. Eneabba’s seven-year on-site stockpile cover means third-party feedstock and long-term offtakes must materialize at scale; Iluka is moving on this (e.g., Lindian/Kangankunde), but delivery risk remains.

A proposed Australian price floor/strategic reserve could stabilize revenues—but details, exit ramps, and taxpayer risk are TBD. It’s a plan, not policy—yet.

Tiling and Slanting

The ABC package rightly centers national security but downplays parallel Western moves beyond Australia—especially the U.S. floor-price/offtake model already in market. That omission can overstate Canberra’s singularity. It also treats China’s “flood the market” behavior as a constant; fair, but investors should pair that with IEA’s forward view: even in 2035, China likely holds ~76% of refining—dominance persists absent heavy, coordinated capex and massive Operation Warp Speed type of program (and spend) per Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx).

Why This Matters (Signal amid noise)

Two needles just moved: (1) Australia’s refinery financing/2027 timeline appears real; (2) allied governments are normalizing demand-side supports (price floors, guaranteed offtake). Together they sketch a workable ex-China pathway—if projects lock feedstock and if policy sticks through cycles. Otherwise, the chokehold tightens. Again per REEx, comprehensive, integrated critical mineral (including REE) becomes of paramount importance.

Bottom Line

Credible progress, not victory. Australia is building a pillar; the West still needs multiple refineries, diversified feedstock, and codified price-stability tools to keep new entrants alive when China squeezes. That’s the net of this REEx review.

Source: ABC News (Sept. 16, 2025) plus cited references above. ABC (opens in a new tab)

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