Highlights

• Trump's C5+1 summit shows renewed U.S. interest in Central Asia, but the region is diversifying around China, not away from it, with Beijing maintaining 60% of rare earth mining and 85% of refining capacity.
• The U.S.-backed $1.1B Kazakhstan tungsten deal is optics over substance; China invested $23B in Kazakh mines in six months, dwarfing American commercial presence in critical minerals.
• U.S. rare earth dependence is structural, not diplomatic—no administration has replicated China's 30-year supply chain integration, making Eurasian consolidation the real investor signal.

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Today’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF analysis (opens in a new tab) frames President Trump’s C5+1 summit as a moment of renewed U.S. interest in Central Asia. That part checks out. Washington is indeed trying to reinsert itself into a region where China dominates critical minerals and where Russia maintains deep security levers. The article accurately notes China’s commanding rare earth position—roughly 60% of mining and more than 85% of global refining. These figures align with REEx’s 2025 analyst briefings. The fact that Central Asia now shops for alternative security and trade partners post–Ukraine war is also well-established.

But here’s the important investor signal: the region is not moving away from China; it is diversifying around China. That nuance makes a world of difference when assessing future REE flows.

The Tungsten Deal: Substance or Scenery?

The ORF piece highlights a single U.S.-linked project: Cove Capital’s US$1.1B tungsten venture in Kazakhstan (opens in a new tab). This is factual—but needs context. Tungsten is strategically critical, but it is not a rare earth. Kazakhstan holds enormous tungsten resources, yet no major U.S.-backed REE project emerged from this summit.

Beijing, by contrast, poured US$23B into Kazakh copper/aluminum mines in just six months. That scale dwarfs any U.S. commercial footprint. Investors should treat the tungsten deal as optics, not a shift in REE strategy.

The Narrative Trap: Power Politics Over Physical Tons

The ORF essay leans heavily on “MAGA diplomacy” as a limiting factor. This may be politically resonant, but it glosses over a larger truth: U.S. REE dependence is structural, not diplomatic. Even a hyper-engaged U.S. State Department could not replicate China’s 30-year upstream-through-downstream integration.

Bias emerges where the essay attributes weak U.S. positioning solely to Trump’s tariff posture. In reality, every U.S. administration since the 1990s has underinvested in REE supply chains. Central Asia’s lukewarm response reflects that history, not one man's doctrine.

No clear misinformation—just a Beltway-like (New Delhi style) habit of over-crediting diplomacy and under-weighting geology, capex, and refining capacity, not to mention advanced rare earth magnet capacity.

The Real Rare Earth Story: Eurasia Is Consolidating

For REE investors, the most notable takeaway is not the summit—it’s the gravitational pull of China and Russia. Their deepening corridor-building, SCO coordination, and synchronized resource strategies signal a Eurasian consolidation. That consolidation directly affects long-term REE flows, especially for heavy rare earths, where the West is nearly absent.

The U.S. may desire Central Asia’s minerals. But desire is not capacity, and capacity—not sentiment—sets the price floor.

The Think Tank

The ORF is one of India’s most prominent think tanks, headquartered in New Delhi with major centers in Mumbai and Kolkata. Founded in 1990 by Dhirubhai Ambani’s Reliance Group, ORF began as a policy research arm focused on Indian economic liberalization. Today it operates independently of Reliance but maintains strong ties to Indian political, diplomatic, and business networks.

ORF produces analysis on foreign policy, strategic affairs, technology, climate, energy, and economics, drawing heavily from Indian national interests.

It is best known globally as the co-host of the Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship geopolitical conference (sometimes described as “India’s Davos meets Munich Security Conference”).

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