Highlights

• Brazil's rare earth compound exports to China surged to US$6.7 million in the first half of 2025, tripling year-on-year.
• China appears to be diversifying its rare earth supply base through emerging economies like Brazil amid geopolitical challenges.
• Potential geopolitical implications emerge as Brazil becomes a potential key player in global rare earth supply dynamics.

According to a new report by the China-Brazil Business Council (opens in a new tab) (CBBC), Brazil’s rare earth compound exports to China surged to US$6.7 million in the first half of 2025, tripling year-on-year. Though modest in dollar value, analysts view this spike as a strategic signal: China is quietly diversifying its rare earth supply base amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. The report, authored by CBBC research director Tulio Cariello and covered by the South China Morning Post, highlights how emerging economies like Brazil are becoming critical nodes in the evolving global rare earth supply chain.

Overall, Brazil’s exports to China fell 7.5% to $47.7 billion, while imports from China rose 22%, narrowing Brazil’s trade surplus to just $12 billion, the lowest since 2019. Amid this shift, rare earths stand out as a rare sector of bilateral export growth, drawing investor attention to the Rocha da Rocha project and other Brazilian REE prospects in states like Bahia and Minas Gerais.

This raises several key questions:

• Is China positioning Brazil as a long-term rare earth supply partner to offset risks from Myanmar, the U.S., and Africa?
• Will Brazilian regulatory frameworks and environmental oversight keep pace with the increased demand for REE extraction?
• How will Brazil balance export growth with the potential to develop its own value-added rare earth magnet or alloy industry?

With Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Brazilian President Lula da Silva reaffirming economic ties at the recent BRICS summit, the geopolitical stakes are clear. Investors should watch closely: Brazil may be emerging not just as a commodity supplier, but as a swing player in the global contest for rare earth dominance.

Source: Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post (opens in a new tab), July 18, 2025

Report Author: Tulio Cariello, China-Brazil Business Council