Highlights

• Brazilian researchers argue Maranhão state could transform from raw-ore exporter to vertically integrated rare earth hub by 2045 by cracking the midstream bottleneck—oxide separation and metallurgy—that keeps the West dependent on China.
• The state possesses a unique logistics triad of Port of Itaqui, Carajás Railway, and Bacabeira Export Processing Zone that could support domestic rare earth processing facilities, not just mining operations.
• Success hinges on mastering two critical challenges:
  • Advanced separation technology
  • Radioactive waste management from monazite/xenotime processing, which concentrates thorium and uranium byproducts.

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Felipe de Oliveira Carvalho and Rakel Dourado de Oliveira Murad both with Universidade Federal do Maranhão, UFMA (opens in a new tab) argue in a new 2026 paper that Brazil’s state of Maranhão (opens in a new tab) could evolve from a raw-ore exporter into a vertically integrated rare earth hub by 2045—but only if it cracks the same “midstream” bottleneck that keeps the West dependent on China: oxide separation and advanced metallurgy. Using a document-based, forward-looking analysis, the authors identify both geological potential and an unusually mature logistics platform that could support local processing—yet they warn that technology mastery and radioactive waste management will determine whether Maranhão becomes a serious player or another exporter of low-value concentrates.

Study Methods, Explained Simply

This is not a drilling campaign or lab study. It’s a qualitative, documentary “triangulation”: the authors synthesize geological reports, infrastructure and business plans, and national strategic documents, then build a prospective scenario (including a SWOT-style assessment) for “Maranhão 2045.”

Key Findings: A Rare Confluence of Rocks and Routes

The paper identifies four geological “axes” with rare earth potential (including monazite and xenotime—minerals often associated with rare earths and, importantly, radioactive byproducts).

It also highlights a logistics triad that could plausibly support domestic value-add: the Port of Itaqui, the Carajás Railway, and the Bacabeira Export Processing Zone (EPZ)—positioned to receive concentrates and potentially host oxide separation facilities.

Port of Itaqui

The authors explicitly frame the geopolitical context: the rare earth market is highly concentrated, and China dominates the high-value stages—oxide separation and magnet manufacturing—which is exactly why vertical integration matters.

Implications: Processing, Not Mining, Breaks the Monopoly

For REEx readers, the takeaway is familiar and sharp: Brazil can’t diversify global supply by digging more rock alone. The prize is midstream. If Maranhão can build separation capacity within a stable industrial zone with export-grade logistics, it could become a Western-facing supplier of strategic oxides and eventually alloys/magnets—reducing exposure to China-centered processing chokepoints.

Limitations and Controversial Realities

This paper is scenario-driven, not a feasibility study with verified reserves, pilot-scale separation data, or financing commitments. It also surfaces the hardest controversy: monazite/xenotime processing concentrates thorium and uranium into residues, making NORM/TENORM waste handling a make-or-break constraint for permitting, ESG acceptance, and cost.

Conclusion

“Maranhão 2045” is a plausible vision—because it correctly identifies the bottleneck. But the same rule applies in Brazil as in the U.S. and EU: processing capacity is power. Without separation metallurgy and credible radioactive waste solutions, vertical integration remains a slogan.

Citation: Carvalho, F. O.; Murad, R. D. O. (2026). Maranhao 2045: from ore exporter to global player – the vertical integration of rare earth minerals. Revista Caderno Pedagógico, v.23, n.1, p. 01–20. DOI: 10.54033/cadpedv23n1-072.