Highlights

• Brazil holds 95% of global niobium and significant rare earth reserves, but lacks the processing, refining, and financing infrastructure to transform raw materials into economic power.
• China controls critical mineral processing after decades of industrial policy, creating a bottleneck where value and geopolitical influence are determined downstream, not at the mining stage.
• Without coordinated investment in midstream capacity, Brazil risks remaining a raw material supplier despite surging demand from clean energy, AI infrastructure, and defense systems.

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A new analysis by Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, with input from experts including Cullen Hendrix and Bruna Santos, delivers a clear message (opens in a new tab): Brazil’s vast critical mineral reserves—among the world’s richest—will not translate into economic or geopolitical power unless the country builds processing, financing, and industrial capacity. Despite holding roughly 95% of global niobium reserves and significant rare earth and graphite deposits, Brazil remains constrained by weak midstream infrastructure—the stage where raw materials are transformed into usable products.

The Study: A Shift From “Who Has Minerals” to “Who Can Use Them”

The analysis draws on expert discussions at PIIE and reframes the global supply chain debate. The key insight: the bottleneck is no longer mining—it is processing and refining, areas dominated by China after decades of industrial policy investment.

Brazil, while resource-rich, lacks:

• Sufficient refining and separation capacity
• Coordinated industrial policy
• Financing structures to support large-scale projects

Without these, mineral wealth remains economically underleveraged.

Key Findings: Demand Is Surging, but Control Lies Elsewhere

The study highlights three major demand drivers:

• Clean energy technologies (EVs, wind, batteries)
• AI and data center infrastructure
• Modern defense systems

Yet despite this demand surge, China controls the midstream, shaping pricing and supply availability.  Brazil’s potential advantage—low-carbon energy for processing—could create a “green premium,” but only if infrastructure is built.

Strategic Implications: A Global Power Struggle in Motion

For the U.S. and its allies, Brazil represents a critical but uncertain partner. The study raises concerns about:

• U.S. policy inconsistency and political risk
• Competition with China, which has shown a willingness to build processing capacity in partner countries
• The need for coordinated, multilateral financing and industrial policy

In short, geology provides opportunity, but institutions determine outcomes.

Limitations and Contested Realities

This is not a formal empirical study but an expert-driven policy analysis, meaning conclusions rely on interpretation rather than new data. It also assumes Brazil can overcome institutional barriers—an outcome far from guaranteed given regulatory complexity, capital intensity, and geopolitical pressures.

Bottom Line

Brazil sits on extraordinary mineral wealth—but without decisive investment in processing, financing, and industrial ecosystems, it risks remaining a raw material supplier in a world where value—and power—are created downstream.

Source: Monica de Bolle, Peterson Institute for International Economics (March 2026)

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