Highlights

• China's light rare earth production declined in January 2025, primarily due to raw material shortages and maintenance shutdowns in multiple provinces.
• NdFeB magnetic material industry saw an approximate 8% month-over-month production decrease as companies prepared for Chinese New Year.
• Ion-adsorption ore scarcity and suspension of Myanmar ore imports led to increased rare earth raw material prices and reduced production.

In January 2025, China's production of light rare earth elements, particularly Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) oxide and alloy, experienced a decline. This decrease was mainly due to raw material shortages and maintenance shutdowns in regions like Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang.

The recent report comes via Shanghai Metals Market (opens in a new tab). Because of these challenges, some separation enterprises experienced significant production drops. However, many of these enterprises plan to resume normal operations after the Chinese New Year in February. Despite this, the ongoing tight supply of raw materials suggests that Pr-Nd product prices may continue to rise post-holiday.

In the medium-to-heavy rare earth sector, January saw a slight decrease in oxide production from raw ore separation plants, while output from scrap recycling enterprises grew. The suspension of Myanmar ore imports has significantly tightened the domestic supply of ion-adsorption ore, causing some separation enterprises to reduce or halt production. This scarcity led to an overall increase in rare earth raw material prices during the month. Conversely, scrap recycling enterprises benefited from higher profits, prompting them to boost their operating rates.

The NdFeB (Neodymium-Iron-Boron) magnetic material industry reported an approximate 8% month-over-month production decrease in January. Early in the month, downstream market orders led to increased production activity as companies worked to meet pre-holiday demand. However, as the Chinese New Year approached, many enterprises ceased accepting new orders and halted external quotations to focus on holiday preparations. Due to weaker-than-expected market orders, numerous companies began their holidays earlier than usual, leading to the observed production decline.

Looking ahead, February's production is expected to remain low during the early part of the month. By mid-February, a gradual return to normal operations is anticipated.

These trends highlight the challenges faced by China's rare earth industry, including raw material shortages, production halts, and fluctuating market demands. Stakeholders should monitor these developments closely to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.  And what will move, possibly unorthodox and unexpected, will be made by President Donald Trump as he launches his America first presidency?

How will this impact the market for rare earths and critical minerals? How will China’s rare earth complex respond?