Highlights

• China implements new export controls on seven rare earth elements, strategically leveraging its dominant position in critical mineral supply chains.
• The US lacks comprehensive midstream processing capabilities for rare earth materials, with full production capacity estimated 8-10 years away.
• Strategic risks include potential future sanctions and vulnerabilities in clean energy, military technology, and semiconductor manufacturing.

China’s latest export controls on rare earth elements mark a fresh escalation in the ongoing U.S.–China trade war, reaffirming Beijing’s dominant position over a suite of materials essential to American defense, technology, and energy sectors. According to a new Time article (opens in a new tab) by Andrew R. Chow, China has formally placed oversight mechanisms on seven rare earth elements—without banning them outright—signaling a sharpened geopolitical strategy to wield rare earths as leverage while preserving economic benefit.

The controlled materials are critical to manufacturing semiconductors, advanced weaponry, electric vehicle motors, and AI-enabling microchips reports Time.  While China omitted key magnet inputs impediments to building rare earth infrastructure domestically.

The Missing Midstream

The U.S. still lacks a comprehensive industrial policy to address midstream and downstream bottlenecks in the rare earth supply chain. Despite increased investment in U.S.-based mining, experts like critical minerals analyst Lyle Trytten caution that processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing capacity are still concentrated in China. “The U.S. does not have the means to create the materials it needs to create the devices it survives on,” Trytten told Time.

While mining projects are underway in the U.S. and Greenland—with backing from venture players like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos—the timeline to full-scale production remains 8–10 years out. The U.S. also faces a skills shortage, with a declining number of mining engineering graduates and little modern experience operating complex rare earth facilities.

Strategic Implications and the Path Forward

As companies scramble to secure non-Chinese supply chains, the article highlights the cascading risks: tighter Chinese export scrutiny may give Beijing the intelligence it needs to target specific foreign firms with future sanctions. RAND engineer Fabian Villalobos warns that any company making motors, chips, or smart devices using REEs may become a geopolitical “pressure point.”

Rare Earth Exchanges urges U.S. policymakers and private industry to coordinate on midstream development, workforce training, tariff restructuring, and end-use manufacturing to address the strategic deficit. Without that, American clean energy goals, military readiness, and tech leadership remain acutely vulnerable to Chinese supply manipulation.