Highlights

• China's decades-long strategy has secured control over 87% of global mineral refining.
• China holds control over 70% of rare earth mining.
• China has captured African upstream assets through vertically integrated infrastructure.
• The Belt and Road Initiative has created a logistical lattice binding African minerals to Chinese refineries.
• Diversification is structurally challenging for Western supply chains.
• Western firms like UK-based Pensana and U.S. investors are gaining traction in Africa.
• Nations impose export controls, signaling potential shifts in mineral geopolitics.

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China’s dominance of Africa’s critical minerals sector is neither accidental nor sudden—it is the result of decades of upstream acquisition, midstream consolidation, and downstream industrial integration. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies via All Africa (opens in a new tab) outlines a system that is vast, vertically aligned, and extremely difficult to dislodge. For Rare Earth Exchanges readers, the strategic question is simple: What does China’s mineral empire in Africa mean for the future of rare earth diversification?

The Long Shadow of Beijing’s Mineral Strategy

The article accurately notes China’s overwhelming control of refining capacity—87% of global processing, nearly 70% of rare earth mining, and 93% of permanent magnet manufacturing. These figures track with known REEx research and global assessments. Also accurate is China’s push into African upstream assets—Goulamina lithium (Mali), Ngualla rare earths (Tanzania), and Khoemacau copper (Botswana). These acquisitions give Beijing raw material certainty through the 2030s.

 What stands out is the infrastructure dimension: China’s Belt and Road Initiative isn’t just ports and rail—it is a logistical lattice binding African minerals to Chinese refineries, from the Lobito Corridor to Dar es Salaam. This is the part most mainstream reporting misses, and it is correctly emphasized here.

Where the Narrative Needs Nuance

The claim that China “weaponizes” export controls is partially accurate—Beijing has restricted gallium, graphite, and magnet production inputs. The article’s framing is strong but not misleading. REEx would simply caution investors: export restrictions are asymmetric—they hurt China’s customers, but they also pressure China’s own manufacturers, who depend on global demand.

Similarly, the discussion of environmental violations is grounded in real events (e.g., Zambia’s Kafue spill). Yet the article risks implying this is unique to Chinese firms. Historically, Western mining houses also operated with poor oversight in Africa. The issue is enforcement capacity, not nationality.

Why This Matters for Rare Earth Supply Chains

The central takeaway for investors: China’s dominance is structural, not incidental. Africa’s enormous magnet-metal potential (NdPr, Dy, Tb) remains tied to Chinese capital, smelting capacity, and rail-port corridors. Western or Japanese attempts to build “China-free” value chains must confront this geography of influence—not just geology.

 Still, pockets of opportunity are emerging. UK-based Pensana, operating in Angola, has become a standout example of a Western company successfully localizing operations—working with African financiers, building local business partnerships, and demonstrating that non-Chinese actors can gain traction on the continent. Pensana’s progress represents a meaningful breach in what has long been viewed as a near-unshakeable Chinese stronghold in African rare earths and critical minerals.

At the same time, nations like Malawi, Tanzania, and Namibia are asserting greater control through export restrictions aimed at keeping more value on the continent. Whether these moves spark genuine diversification and industrial empowerment—or simply reshape old patterns of dependency—remains one of the defining questions for the next decade of global mineral geopolitics.

President Donald Trump, recently brokering a Central African peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, along with the U.S. government, is encouraging collaboration in central Africa.  And as Rare Earth Exchanges has reported, U.S. investors are pivoting toward Africa in search of critical minerals and rare earth value.

Note UK-based Pensana Plc (opens in a new tab) operating in Angola has done a good job localizing, collaborating with African financial partners, and local businesses at the mine. Pensana is on the move representing a Western breach in the Chinese African critical mineral and rare earth dam. Nations like Malawi, Tanzania, and Namibia are imposing export controls to capture more value at home. Whether this becomes meaningful diversification or another cycle of dependency remains an open question.

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