Highlights

• China's export controls on critical materials such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and rare earth magnets are strategic tools for industrial dominance, not temporary trade measures.
• Beijing calibrates material flows to test Western resolve while avoiding retaliation.
• Export patterns reveal China's shift from exporting raw materials to establishing a downstream monopoly:
  • Restricting foreign refiners while rewarding domestic processors.
  • Transforming a supply-chain issue into a sovereignty crisis.
• Until the West builds independent processing and refining capacity, China remains the swing producer controlling prices and policy.
• Export curves serve as geopolitical indicators of Beijing's long-term strategy.

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China’s export controls on critical materials—from gallium and germanium to dysprosium and terbium—aren’t a passing phase. They are a deliberate, strategic lever in Beijing’s long game of industrial and geopolitical influence. The Sinolytics.Radar analysis correctly captures this: exports have fragmented into distinct behavioral classes. Antimony and lutetium have plummeted, magnet materials have rebounded, and germanium remains on a dizzying roller-coaster.

The patterns reveal something deeper than trade friction. They show calibration—a Beijing strategy of pressure without rupture. China tightens flows just enough to test Western resolve, then relaxes controls to avoid outright retaliation.

Reading Between the Curves

From an analytical standpoint, Sinolytics’ classifications (“Free Fall,” “V-shaped,” “Flat Line”) are directionally sound. Antimony and bismuth indeed show steep volume declines since mid-2023, while rare earth magnets—vital for EVs and defense—display partial recovery after temporary clampdowns. These data points match customs and industry reporting.

Drifting into speculation?  How about the assertion that export controls reflect general “bilateral ties”? That overstates correlation. China’s export levers are aimed more at controlling prices, signaling power, and securing domestic refining capacity than at merely expressing diplomatic mood.

The Missing Context: Western Dependence

The analysis neglects one key truth: China’s export “controls” aren’t just about restriction—they are about redirection. Beijing’s policy increasingly rewards domestic downstream users while penalizing foreign refiners. In effect, China is reshaping the rare earth trade from an export business into a magnet export monopoly. Western policy chatter still frames this as a supply-chain problem; in reality, it’s a sovereignty problem.

Sinolytics is right that “export curves are political indicators,” but investors should recognize they are also blueprints of industrial strategy. Watching gallium and germanium export swings is akin to watching a geopolitical seismograph.

Final Reflection: The Dragon Still Sets the Price

In this unfolding era of controlled scarcity, China remains the swing producer—and thus, the swing policymaker. The West can analyze trade curves all it wants, but until processing, separation, and alloy capacity exist outside China, the curves will continue to dance to Beijing’s tune.

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