Highlights
- China’s heavy rare earth supply is constrained by environmental regulations, not quotas, with only 25% of the quota utilized in 2018.
- Researchers predict a 2-5-fold increase in terbium shortage by 2060, driven by demand for EVs and wind power.
- The study emphasizes the urgent need for green mining technologies and international cooperation to address China’s heavy rare earth supply challenges.
Researchers affiliated Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China as well as from the United Kingdom and Germany review issues involving the increasing declines in supplies of China’s heavy rare earth (HRE) supplies. Exploring China’s terbium (a critical HRE element) supply-demand conflicts and supply chain bottlenecks, the authors simulate future trends forecasting a growing terbium shortage (a total of 3300 metric tons) in China as its registered production declined by 90% during the period from 2007 to 2018. Does this decline, potentially across multiple HREs, represent an existential environmental threat to dominance of the global HRE supply chain? Could a great contradiction in China’s own multi-decade plan be the irrevocable crises from environmental externalities within the country? Is the country moving fast enough upgrading process facilities for greener outcomes? Will this as the modeled forecast suggest, lead to significant HRE shortages not due to the national quota but rather environmental protection?
While it’s popular to think of supply issues as related to China’s production quota policy, the authors here identify that only 25% of China’s quota was utilized in 2018. Such a large quota-supply gap stems primarily from the enforced closures of HRE mines since the current mining techniques failed to reach stricter environmental regulations.
Generating simulations, the authors predict a 2-5-fold increase in terbium shortage by 2060 under the burgeoning ambitions in EVs and wind power. Regardless, this impending shortage could potentially be mitigated by 27-70% under the scenario of breakthroughs in green mining techniques.
Enter what the authors refer to as “the urgency of seeking and promoting HREgreen mining technologies, with implications for shifting global attention from geopolitical competition to green supply.”
So, what’s going on in China? Are the authors predicting a greater shortage of REEs?
Yes. According to their simulations, they predict a 2-5-fold increase in terbium shortage by 2060, with vast demand for EVs and wind power, to name just a few sources.
Summary
While China’s quota policy and political landscape are often perceived as constraints when it comes to HRE, the authors’ study points to a shift in the dominant factors influencing China’s heavy earth supply from quota limitations to stringent environmental regulations.
A pivotal change occurred when China progressively relaxed its HRE quota, surpassing officially registered production levels since 2010. By 2018, China utilized only 25% of its HRE production quota.
This constraint transitioned to a mismatch between the outdated mining techniques and the stringent environmental regulations.
What do these finds suggest?
The supply risk assessment comes out with a new number one challenge. As opposed to political concerns, the number one inhibiting factor now may be mining environmental constraints, and this points to a newfound urgency to take this topic on.
The authors share their perspective on this challenge, stating they urge a transition on HRE from geopolitical forces to innovative green supply solutions.
Not a well-known problem in China, that the same environmental challenges that led to at certain points shutting down REE production in America could also be occurring in China.
Presently China employs three major types of HREs mining techniques that could ultimately lead to diverse environmental damages regarding their specific processes and related chemicals.
| Major Types of Mining Techniques | Summary of Problems |
|---|---|
| Pond leaching technique | This involves excavating topsoil and removing them into an elsewhere tank and spraying them with NaCl-H₂C₂O₄ chemicals, resulting in severe surface vegetation destruction, soil erosion, and severe pollution of groundwater. |
| Heap leaching technique | An approach that places the minerals in a mound and soaks them with (NH₄)₂SO₄-H₂C₂O₄ chemicals, which also leads to vegetation degradation and soil erosion. |
| In-situ leaching techniques | In this method the mining operation pumps (NH₄)₂SO₄-NH4HCO3 chemicals to the earth directly, produced large amounts of ammonium nitrogen, heavy metal, and other pollutants. Hence, the environmental impacts of HRE mining should raise global attention |
China’s HRE industry may be in serious trouble, a factor not accounted for in the Project 2049 plan. That environmental catastrophe could mitigate plans of total domination.
Enter some policy recommendations proposed by the authors to potentially save the HRE industry in China. See the table:
| Recommendations | Summary |
|---|---|
| The government needs to continue to encourage and support HRE mining enterprises and affiliated scientific research institutes to engage in green mining technological innovation | For example, a dedicated research group had long focused on improving HREs mining techniques, proposing an environmental engineering model that involves meticulous monitoring and assessment of environmental impacts at each process. |
| Another Chinese research team has suggested the substitution of ammonium sulfate with magnesium sulfate to mitigate ammonia nitrogen pollution | A basic substation that is hoped would have far better environmental outcomes/ |
| A recent study has introduced a highly efficient technology utilizing electrokinetic processes, demonstrating a significant reduction in the impacts of HRE mining in tests conducted from bench-scale to a small pilot | Much like in America that needs to demonstrate novel approaches, technologically and/or process for production, so apparently does China have no choice but to innovate, otherwise their entire industry is in environmental trouble |
Such environmentally friendly mining technologies have yet to be adopted in the real world, on a large scale. To promote the widespread adoption of eco-friendly mining techniques and, consequently ensure the supply security of terbium, governments must increase their investments in technological innovation and promotion.
Additionally, all governments need to promote the establishment of HRE recycling systems to alleviate the pressure on primary resources.
This recent study demonstrates that use of Tb stock accounted for 13% of China’s total Tb mineral reserves in 2018, a proportion expected to rise to 80% by 2060 (assuming no new resources are discovered during this period).
They find the annual decommissioning amount of Tb, though currently small, is projected to sharply increase, reaching 80% of Tb demand in 2060.
The authors also recommend intensifying international cooperation within the HRE industry. The authors point out “despite being a major global producer of HREs, China is expected to grapple with severe shortages hindering its domestic sustainable transition.”
Summary
Factoring together dynamic material flow analysis along with scenario analysis the authors open up and discuss problematic uncertain bottlenecks involving China’s terbium supply chain. At least according to the simulations involved in this study, environmental protection measures rather than China’s rare earth quote policy represent the major constraint on terbium supply since 2010.
Again only 25% of China’s terbium production quota was utilized in 2018. Hence the authors raise attention to the critical metals to shift from geopolitical competition to green supply.
Daniel
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