Highlights

• China implemented export controls on seven rare earth elements in April, creating potential supply chain disruptions.
• The U.S. is making progress in domestic rare earth processing, with companies like MP Materials and Energy Fuels expanding capabilities.
• Strategic industrial policy and domestic investments are critical for reducing dependence on Chinese rare earth imports by 2030.

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MarketWatch runs an opinion by Crescencia Maurer and Sharon Squassoni arguing China is “locking up” rare earths and the U.S. is running out of time. It highlights Beijing’s April export restrictions and warns of knock-on risks to U.S. manufacturing. Opinion can be valuable—but let’s separate signal from spin. A very important point, but some overreach. While being mindful that, although President Donald Trump has done more than any other recent president for the re-industrialization of the rare earth supply chain, more is needed in the form of well-thought-through, strategic industrial policy.

Bedrock, Not Bedlam

Yes—new Chinese controls landed in April. Beijing moved rare-earth items (notably seven REEs) and certain magnets onto a license regime, tightening paperwork and slowing flows. That’s consistent with official notices and independent analysis. Exports didn’t stop—but licensing created friction, and magnet shipments halved in April as permits lagged. That’s material.

Where the Piece Overreaches

The article says the U.S. has “almost no” domestic ability to process/refine into end-use components. True for finished magnets (capacity is thin), but not zero for upstream conversion: MP Materials reports rising NdPr output and is building U.S. magnets capacity; Energy Fuels is producing NdPr oxide and piloting heavies; Lynas USA has DoD-backed processing underway in Texas and USA Rare Earth is working on mine-to-magnet for the small to mid-sized downstream sector. 

Yes, of course, the bottleneck is still real—but “almost none” blunts meaningful progress and misleads retail readers on what’s already operating or funded.  Moreover, President Trump is taking the situation seriously. We see this, and while we still need a more comprehensive industrial policy, at least we are now headed in the right direction.

Headlines vs. Hardware

The op-ed implies April measures could trigger plant stoppages at U.S. automakers. Documentation shows disrupted flows and diplomatic pressure to loosen rules—but not verified, widespread U.S. auto shutdowns tied specifically to the April controls. That’s a could framed as a would. Investors deserve the conditional mood here.

What’s Missing (and Matters)

Start with the facts: the April controls target seven rare earths—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—elements central to high-performance magnets and specialty alloys. Naming them clarifies exactly where the chokepoints sit. Also, remember controls aren’t bans: Beijing’s license regime can throttle or release shipments, and the pace has already fluctuated since April, so the smart read is to monitor permit cadence, not just headlines.

Finally, weigh the U.S. offsets now moving from concept to concrete—price-floor arrangements, DoD-backed contracts, and new domestic magnet plants. They won’t fix 2025 supply tightness, but they will materially reshape the 2027–2029 landscape by anchoring more processing and magnet capacity onshore.

REEx Takeaway—Urgent, Yes; Inevitable, No

China still wields leverage, and April’s controls are serious. But the U.S. is not starting from zero, and the trajectory (NdPr oxide output, Texas build-outs, planned magnet lines) complicates a tidy doom narrative. For portfolios: track license approvals in China, U.S. commissioning milestones, and binding offtakes—the hard datapoints that convert policy chatter into cash flows.

Yes, we are not out of the collective woods, ex-China.  If China decided tomorrow to shut down access, it would be a major process. But thanks to the Trump administration, we have some forward momentum. Rare Earth Exchanges does concur that it’s not enough, however. More on the policy front is necessary for resilience by 2030.

Source: Crescencia Maurer & Sharon Squassoni, “China is locking up rare-earth elements — and the U.S. is running out of time to stop it,” MarketWatch, (opens in a new tab) Aug. 26, 2025.

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