Highlights

• White House claims of suspended Chinese export controls are misleading—only October 2025 measures were paused, while critical April 2025 restrictions on rare earth oxides and magnet materials remain fully in effect.
• Dr. Gareth Hatch's forensic analysis of MOFCOM documents exposes the policy bifurcation that directly impacts Western sourcing strategies and supply chain planning through 2026.
• Narrative risk is now as significant as supply risk in rare earths—verifying source documents over political headlines is essential for investors and defense planners.

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So what are the headlines vs. hard truths?  Last week’s White House declaration that China had “suspended global implementation” of rare earth export controls landed with geopolitical fanfare. But as UK-based Dr. Gareth Hatch (opens in a new tab)—a respected voice in critical materials and rare-earth supply chains—makes clear, the truth is more layered than the headlines suggest. In a precise decoding of China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM (opens in a new tab)) notices, Hatch reveals that only the October 2025 export control announcements have been paused. The earlier and more consequential April 2025 controls remain fully in effect—a fact long tracked by Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx).

This policy bifurcation isn’t mere bureaucratic hairsplitting. It directly affects how Western firms forecast REE availability and plan sourcing strategies through 2026 and beyond.

Hatch Knows Where the Skeletons Are

Dr. Hatch—known for his technical clarity and deep policy fluency across magnets, battery metals, and defense supply chains—spared no nuance in a direct communication with REEx. He points to MOFCOM Announcement No. 70, which suspends certain dual-use controls (e.g. synthetic diamonds, lithium-ion battery components) until November 2026. But he also highlights the glaring absence of any rollback on Announcement No. 18, which instituted the April 2025 export restrictions on REEs and separation technologies—especially those tied to NdFeB magnet production.

Meanwhile, MOFCOM’s Announcement No. 72 does soften restrictions on graphite and gallium—but maintains prohibitions on exports to U.S. military end-users. Hatch’s bottom line: this is partial easing, not full détente.

Facts, Not Spin

Hatch’s forensic reading aligns with industry signals. There is no evidence that April’s controls were lifted. The U.S. government’s statement appears to blur legal nuance with political optimism. Of course, the White House needs a “win.” But the only confirmed change is the temporary suspension of certain October rules. Key constraints on rare earth oxides, magnet alloys, and core tech remain in force. Investors, OEMs, and defense planners would do well to temper expectations. This is a policy adjustment—not a policy reversal.

Narrative Risk Is the New Supply Risk

This moment offers a broader lesson: in rare earths, narrative risk is as real as price risk. A bullish headline can obscure stubborn realities. Hatch reminds us to read the source texts, not just the press briefings. REEx amplifies his analysis because verifiable fact—not wishful spin—is the bedrock of true transparency.

Summary

Gareth Hatch’s expert analysis dismantles the myth of a broad rollback of Chinese export controls. While the U.S. framed the move as sweeping, MOFCOM’s documents confirm only a selective pause. The original April 2025 restrictions—central to rare earth oxide and magnet material exports—are still firmly in place.

This article reinforces Rare Earth Exchanges’ mission: to bring transparency, accuracy, and insight to a market often clouded by political distortion, nebulous, asymmetric information, and strategic ambiguity.

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