Highlights

• China controls approximately 68.6% of global terbium flows.
• Ion-adsorption clay deposits supply about 54% of China's domestic and 40% of global terbium production.
• Terbium usage has shifted from phosphors to NdFeB permanent magnets.
• The shift is driven by electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced technologies.
• Low recycling rates (around 12%) and concentrated production pose significant risks for global terbium supply.
• The current situation demands urgent circular economy strategies.

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Wei Liu, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology (with collaborators from multiple Chinese and international institutions), set out to test a clear hypothesis: China’s full life-cycle control over terbium (Tb)—a critical heavy rare earth—now determines the shape, risks, and future of global Tb supply. The team mapped where Tb is mined, refined, built into products, traded, used, scrapped, lost to the environment, and recovered—across three decades—to show how a single national system can dominate a strategic material. The research appears in Resources, Environment and Sustainability (Open Access), December 2025.

Study Design & Methods

Researchers built a spatially and temporally explicit material flow analysis (MFA) for Tb covering 1990–2024, linking seven life-cycle stages (mining → refining → components → end-use products → in-use stock → end-of-life → recycling) and five process types (flows, stocks, recycling, losses, trade). Inputs were assembled from Chinese statistical yearbooks, industry bulletins, USGS compilations, and international trade databases (ITC, UN Comtrade); parameters (e.g., Tb content in products) were drawn from the literature. They balanced the system by mass, then ran Monte Carlo uncertainty and sensitivity checks on activity data and coefficients.

Findings

China governs the system.

In 2023, China controlled ~68.6% of global Tb flows and has produced ~1.05×10⁴ t cumulatively, confirming overwhelming centrality in extraction, separation, and high-end processing. Ion-adsorption clay deposits in southern China supplied ~54% of domestic Tb (≈40% of global) over the study window—underscoring the role of heavy-REE-rich clays in China’s edge.

Use shifts from light to magnets.

Tb historically went into phosphors for fluorescent lamps (peaking ~74.5% in 2007), but the LED transition steadily eroded that demand. After 2014, Tb usage swung into NdFeB permanent magnets, reaching ~90% of market flow post-2021, driven by EV traction motors, wind turbines, robotics, and efficient appliances.

Recycling potential is real—but mostly untapped.

The largest near-term recovery pools sit in legacy fluorescent lamps (≈382 t) and home appliances; together, they comprise 63% of the 2023 recovery potential. Yet China’s operational Tb recycling rate remains low (12%), with annual recovery (21 t/y) far short of annual discards (156 t/y)—a gap that widens as turbines and EVs begin retiring later this decade.

Trade reveals concentrated risk.

China exported ~40% of primary Tb products since 2000 and ~58% of Tb-containing end-use goods (2000–2023), while importing Tb compounds for advanced processing—a bidirectional hub that leaves the U.S. and EU structurally dependent. The model suggests new-energy demand could push Tb needs to 134–256% of supply under plausible technology scenarios, absent robust recycling and diversified mining. Red flags: (1) Environmental leakages from mining/smelting (cumulative ~1.16×10³ t Tb) and (2) illegal extraction in ion-adsorption clays add ecological and governance risk; (3) 80%+ production concentration in China and neighbors amplifies geopolitical exposure for importers.

Limitations

• Modeled system: MFA depends on parameter choices (Tb content per product, product lifetimes, scrap rates). Although the authors run uncertainty analyses, hidden flows (unregistered waste, informal markets) can bias totals.
• China-centric vantage: Global flows are measured through China’s lens; non-Chinese data quality and reporting practices vary.
• Price/elasticity not modeled: The study tracks physical flows, not how prices, substitution, or design changes could reshape demand.
• Future scenarios are indicative, not predictive: Pathways (e.g., 134–256% demand/supply) rely on assumptions about technology adoption and policy continuity.

Conclusion & Implications

This paper delivers the first cradle-to-grave map of terbium in China and the world and explains why Tb—not just Dy—has become a quiet chokepoint of the energy transition. For policymakers and industry:

• Build circularity now: Stand up lamp-phosphor and appliance magnet recovery at industrial scale; codify design-for-recycling for motors and generators.
• De-risk supply: Pursue diversified heavy-REE mining and midstream separation outside China, paired with environmental safeguards.
• Plan for retirements: Wind turbines and EVs hit end-of-life in the 2030s–40s; without infrastructure, Tb will be lost instead of looped back.
• Transparency & enforcement: Tighten oversight to curb illegal mining and reduce environmental leakages, improving real supply while lowering footprint.

Bottom line: If Tb stays linear, it stays scarce. A circular Tb economy—backed by diversified sources—turns today’s strategic liability into tomorrow’s resilience.

Citation: Liu W, Guo W, Chen J, Peng S, Ru L, Chen Y, et al. Tracking terbium metabolism in China with implications for its dominance in global rare earth supply. Resources, Environment and Sustainability. 2025;22:100263. doi:10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100263 (opens in a new tab).

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