Highlights

• China has gained control over major cobalt reserves in the Democratic Republic of Congo through strategic acquisitions and infrastructure investments.
• Emerging battery technologies and recycling methods are reducing global dependence on cobalt, potentially diminishing its strategic importance.
• U.S. attempts to counter China's cobalt dominance may come too late as the mineral's significance declines due to technological and ethical shifts.

---

A South China Morning Post (opens in a new tab) recent article explains how China has secured a commanding lead over the U.S. and the West in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) cobalt industry, largely due to past American decisions to sell off key mining assets and China's strategic investments.

Two pivotal sales by Freeport-McMoRan, a major American mining company, to China Molybdenum (CMOC) in 2016 and 2020, handed China control over some of the world’s largest cobalt reserves—Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These acquisitions have more than doubled CMOC’s cobalt production, making it the largest producer globally by 2023.

Meanwhile, China has expanded its footprint through massive infrastructure-for-minerals agreements under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese companies, such as Sinohydro (opens in a new tab) and China Railway Engineering Corporation (opens in a new tab), have invested billions in roads, hydroelectric projects, and transmission lines in exchange for access to the DRC's mineral wealth. Between 2000 and 2021, Chinese state banks approved nearly $13 billion in loans for cobalt and copper projects in the DRC, according to claims in Chinese media.

The U.S. Struggles to Regain Influence

The U.S. is now trying to regain lost ground. President Felix Tshisekedi (opens in a new tab) of the DRC has invited Washington (opens in a new tab) to intervene militarily in the country’s eastern conflicts—a move that could give the U.S. leverage in securing access to cobalt. Reports suggest the Biden administration had blocked a Chinese bid to acquire a DRC cobalt miner in 2024, and the Trump administration may take a more aggressive approach in restricting further Chinese expansion.

However, China’s dominance is deeply entrenched. Unlike the U.S., which lacks a direct economic foothold in the DRC’s cobalt sector, China controls mines, infrastructure, and logistics networks. Observers argue that unless the U.S. provides substantial investment incentives to private firms, it will unlikely displace China’s cobalt grip.

Why Cobalt’s Future Is Becoming Less Relevant

Despite the fierce geopolitical competition for DRC’s cobalt, the mineral's long-term strategic value may decline due to several emerging trends.

The future of cobalt may not be as bright as its current dominance suggests, as several emerging trends indicate a shift away from reliance on this critical mineral. One of the most significant changes comes from battery technology itself. While cobalt has been essential for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) and electronics, major manufacturers like Tesla, BYD, and CATL are increasingly moving toward cobalt-free alternatives, such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.

These LFP batteries are not only cheaper and more abundant, but they also eliminate many of the ethical concerns tied to cobalt mining, making them a more sustainable long-term option.  In addition to changes in battery chemistry, advancements in recycling and the circular economy are also reducing the need for newly mined cobalt.

Companies like Redwood Materials (opens in a new tab) and Umicore (opens in a new tab) are leading the way in scaling up cobalt recovery from old batteries, allowing manufacturers to reuse existing supplies rather than extract more from the earth. As recycling technologies improve and become more cost-effective, demand for freshly mined cobalt is expected to decline.

Moreover, alternative sources of cobalt outside of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are emerging, which could weaken the mineral’s current geopolitical significance. Indonesia, Australia, and Canada are increasing their cobalt production, offering more stable and diversified sources of supply. This expansion may reduce dependence on the DRC, which has long been the dominant global supplier but remains a politically unstable and conflict-prone region.

Beyond supply chain shifts, ethical and environmental concerns also play a major role in Cobalt’s uncertain future. Mining in the DRC has been linked to human rights abuses, child labor, and severe environmental degradation, prompting many companies to seek “ethical” supply chains or transition away from cobalt entirely. As consumers and governments push for more responsible sourcing practices, the pressure on manufacturers to move toward cobalt-free solutions will only intensify.

Taken together, these factors suggest that while cobalt is still critical today, its long-term relevance may diminish as industries prioritize alternative battery chemistries, improved recycling, and ethical sourcing. As technology evolves and sustainability concerns reshape supply chains, the world's dependence on cobalt could fade, making its once unshakable dominance far less certain.

Final Thoughts

While China has decisively outmaneuvered the U.S. in securing DRC’s cobalt reserves, the long-term importance of cobalt itself may wane as battery technology evolves. The U.S. may still try to counter China’s dominance, but by the time Washington secures a stronger foothold, the world may have moved beyond cobalt dependency altogether.