Highlights

• China dramatically reduced antimony and germanium exports by 88-95%.
• Simultaneously, China increased rare earth magnet exports to the US by 660%.
• The mineral trade moves reflect Beijing's geopolitical strategy, using critical mineral supply chains as economic leverage against US tech sanctions.
• Despite apparent trade softening, China maintains tight control over strategic mineral exports.
• This signals ongoing economic and technological tensions.

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China’s latest critical mineral trade data reveals a tale of two tactics. On one hand, exports of antimony and germanium have collapsed—down 88% and 95% respectively since January—amid a Ministry of State Security crackdown on transshipment and smuggling. On the other hand, rare earth magnet exports to the United States skyrocketed 660% in June, thanks to a behind-the-scenes agreement between Beijing and Washington.

This split strategy raises eyebrows—and questions. Is China softening in rare earths to ease chip war tensions while doubling down on strategic chokepoints elsewhere? Or is this just tactical timing before another squeeze?

Antimony and germanium may not be as high-profile as rare earths or lithium, but they are strategic linchpins for U.S. defense, energy, and tech sectors—used in everything from night vision systems and fiber optics to semiconductors, solar panels, and grid-scale batteries. With no domestic antimony production and limited germanium output, the U.S. is heavily dependent on China, which has recently slashed exports of both minerals—down 88% and 95% respectively—through tightened licensing, outright bans to the U.S., and a smuggling crackdown. These curbs, part of Beijing’s retaliation for U.S. tech sanctions, highlight how China is now weaponizing not just rare earths but the broader critical minerals supply chain—leaving Washington racing to stockpile, develop domestic sources, and secure non-Chinese allies before the window closes.

The Facts Hold Up, But Framing Matters

The Asia Financial report (opens in a new tab) is grounded in verifiable customs data. China does lead the world in mining and refining of antimony, germanium, and rare earths. The collapse in shipments of the first two reflects Beijing’s tightened export controls, introduced in 2023–2024, and the recent smuggling revelations involving proxy countries like Thailand and Mexico. The surge in rare earth magnet exports—353 metric tons to the U.S. in June alone—is also accurately reported.

What’s missing is a deeper interrogation of the context. The magnet surge comes not from liberalization, but from license backlogs clearing post-deal. Export volumes remain 38% below June 2024 levels, and China’s April decision to add rare earth magnets to its control list still stands. The narrative of "recovery" downplays the long-term volatility baked into China’s command over this supply chain.

Strategic Spin Alert

Framing the magnet rebound as a goodwill gesture glosses over Beijing’s continued use of rare earths as geopolitical leverage. The U.S.-China deal reportedly involves Nvidia resuming chip sales to China—suggesting a transactional exchange, not a genuine thaw. Investors should beware reading too much into one month of data in an environment shaped by rolling policy retaliation.

Bottom Line: Eyes on the Long Game

Asia Financial’s reporting is accurate in numbers but light on strategic analysis. The real takeaway is this: China is not loosening control—it’s reasserting it through selective compliance. With rare earths, what Beijing gives one quarter, it may restrict the next. The West’s overreliance remains the core problem.