Highlights

• Ukraine postpones signing a $11.5 trillion mineral agreement with the U.S.
• This postponement potentially offers Trump an early diplomatic win.
• Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky, are recalibrating their approach to appeal to Trump's potential foreign policy strategy.
• The delay reflects Ukraine's high-stakes diplomatic strategy amid war-weariness and uncertainty about future U.S. military support.

Ukraine has postponed the signing of a critical mineral cooperation agreement with the U.S., reportedly aiming to court President-elect Donald Trump and secure stronger support in its war with Russia, according to The New York Times. According to a piece in EurAsia Daily (opens in a new tab), the delayed deal, initially planned with President Biden's administration, could give Trump an early diplomatic win if signed during his term.

The agreement involves access to Ukraine’s vast deposits of 20 critical minerals, including cobalt, graphite, and lithium, valued at up to $11.5 trillion, resources crucial for U.S. industries like electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have recalibrated their rhetoric following Trump’s election. Zelensky now emphasizes readiness for negotiations, signaling openness to compromises like deferring the reclamation of Russian-occupied territories. This shift, paired with gestures like nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, appears designed to appeal to Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy.

The implications of this delay are significant. By leveraging its mineral wealth, Ukraine seeks to solidify its position with the incoming U.S. administration, but the strategy raises critical questions. Will delaying the deal risk alienating bipartisan U.S. support, particularly at a time when military aid is under scrutiny? Furthermore, does this approach risk undermining Ukraine’s long-term credibility as a stable partner?

The move reflects Ukraine’s desperate bid for a more favorable outcome in its war and hints at the growing war-weariness among its population, with 44% of Ukrainians reportedly trusting Trump to broker peace. However, skepticism persists as Trump has hinted at reducing military aid, and his intentions remain uncertain. The postponed agreement highlights Ukraine’s high-stakes gamble in navigating shifting U.S. political dynamics while contending with the immediate pressures of war and resource diplomacy.