Highlights

• Critical minerals have replaced oil as the new global power currency, with nations competing to control strategic mineral supply chains.
• China dominates mineral processing.
• The US and Europe seek to break free from dependence through strategic 'friend-shoring' alliances.
• The emerging 'metals war' will define 21st-century industrial and military competition.
• Countries are trading future mineral reserves for political survival.

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Did President Trump miscalculate with “drill baby drill?  Should it really been “dig baby dig, separate baby separates and refine baby refine?”  For over a century, oil dictated global power structures. Now, metals are the new crude, and the world's economic and military balance hinges on who controls the supply chains of lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and other critical minerals.

In a recent Reuters (opens in a new tab) piece by Andy Home he dissects this shift with razor-sharp focus, using Ukraine's new minerals-for-support deal with the U.S. as a case study in how nations are leveraging the ground beneath them for political survival.

At first glance, Ukraine’s mineral play seems dubious. It lacks substantial rare earth reserves, and its other critical metals—titanium, lithium—are still buried in war-ravaged terrain with gutted infrastructure and unreliable power grids. Yet, that hardly matters. The deal is not about immediate extraction; it’s about staking claims in the new global metals rush, where nations monetize future mineral wealth in exchange for political support, defense agreements, and economic alliances. The implications are massive.

Why Are Critical Minerals So Important?

Home draws a clear line from technological complexity to resource dependence. The days when a telephone just needed copper are gone—modern technology requires a symphony of metals, from smartphones to fighter jets. The lithium-ion battery is the ultimate symbol of this metallic revolution, an invention barely three decades old but now the linchpin of global industrial policy. The West’s push for electric vehicles and renewable energy has made critical metals an existential issue—not just for economic growth but for national security.

Ironically, China doesn’t necessarily have the largest reserves of these minerals, but it controls the refining and processing. The U.S. and Europe are scrambling to catch up, but China, with the nation’s state-owned apparatus, continues to tighten up its grip, restricting exports of critical mineral processing technology to ensure that even if the West finds the raw materials, it will struggle to refine them into usable metals. Ukraine, Congo, and Greenland might hold potential reserves, but without refineries, they remain nothing but geopolitical IOUs.

The players in the Global Metals Poker Game

As metals become the new geopolitical currency, three major power blocs are playing high-stakes poker:

• China: The house that built the casino. Controls nearly all midstream processing and now weaponizes its mineral dominance through export restrictions on processing technology. The West’s dependence is a strategic liability.
• The United States & Europe: Desperate to break free from China’s grip. The Biden administration championed “friend-shoring” with allies like Canada and Australia, but Trump’s return suggests a more erratic, transactional approach, where even Russia could be a supplier if the price is right.
• Resource-rich but infrastructure-poor nations (Ukraine, Congo, Greenland, etc.): The new players offering mineral access in exchange for security guarantees. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s overture to the U.S. mirrors Ukraine’s, with cobalt in place of lithium. The battlefield is shifting from oil-rich deserts to mineral-rich jungles and tundras.

What’s Missing From the Analysis?

Home presents a brilliant geopolitical snapshot, but there are key blind spots:

• How Will the West Build Processing Capacity? Even if Ukraine or Canada delivers raw materials, refining is the real chokehold. The U.S. has no clear strategy for rebuilding its midstream industrial base, meaning the raw ores may still end up in Chinese processing plants (Rare Earth Exchanges has continuously suggested the U.S. must develop an industrial policy).
• Environmental and Political Risks: Mining is ugly. Home mentions infrastructure challenges but doesn’t explore mining expansions' environmental and social costs. From indigenous protests in Canada to deforestation in the Congo, local resistance could disrupt the West’s grand resource strategy.
• Strategic Hypocrisy: Trump’s pivot away from “friend-shoring” is a glaring contradiction. Why negotiate with Ukraine and flirt with Russia’s metal supply when Canada, a proven ally, has vast mineral wealth and refining capacity? The answer might lie in Trump’s political calculations rather than economic logic.

The NewMetals War Has Begun

Critical minerals are no longer just a commodity; they are power itself. Nations are trading future reserves for political survival, while major players—China, the U.S., and Russia—are maneuvering to dominate this new era of resource conflict.

Home’s conclusion is chillingly accurate: Get ready to hear a lot more about gallium, neodymium, and dysprosium—names that mean nothing to most people today but will define the winners and losers of the 21st century’s industrial and military battles. The scramble for oil lasted a century. The scramble for critical minerals is just beginning—and it promises to be just as ruthless, if not more.