Highlights
- Over 95% of rare earth elements are mined or processed by China, creating significant geopolitical vulnerability for Western nations.
- Mining in conflict zones can either stabilize or destabilize regions, with careful governance and transparency crucial to responsible mineral extraction.
- Global mineral demand is rising due to energy transition and population growth, with potential supply chain disruptions in future U.S.-China tensions.
Rare Earth Exchanges listens in to the Times Radio podcast (opens in a new tab) with Rohitesh Dhawan, CEO of (opens in a new tab) the UK-based International Council on Mining and Metals (opens in a new tab). In a wide-ranging interview, Dhawan delivers a grounded and sobering view of the critical minerals scramble, emphasizing that rare earth and transition metals underpin everything from defense systems to clean energy infrastructure. Dhawan highlights a key fact: over 95% of rare earth elements are either mined or processed by China or Chinese-linked entities, leaving the West highly exposed to geopolitical disruptions. This consolidation, he argues, is prompting renewed interest in mineral-rich but underdeveloped or unstable nations like Ukraine, Greenland, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Dhawan confirms that critical minerals are one factor in the U.S.’s renewed diplomatic interest in Greenland and Ukraine but wisely cautions against overstating their role—especially in Greenland, where strategic military positioning also plays a major role. He makes clear that while Ukraine has significant mineral potential, current resource maps date back to the Soviet era and are unreliable. Even in an optimistic scenario, building a functioning mining operation in Ukraine would take at least five years. That projection is rooted in well-known industry timelines and permitting realities, making it a factual but conditional estimate.
A notable portion of the discussion centers on speculative benefits the U.S. might derive from embedding American mining companies in Ukraine—namely, increased security, infrastructure development, and higher environmental and ethical standards compared to companies from countries with looser regulations. These claims are framed carefully and are plausible, yet they remain hypothetical and dependent on conditions that include stability, rule of law, and local governance—factors still tenuous in Ukraine and especially fragile in the DRC.
Dhawan’s assertion that Western firms will maintain high standards regardless of regulatory rollback, such as President Trump’s recent moves to weaken overseas bribery rules, is a well-intended normative claim, but it cannot be assumed to be universally true.
Dhawan’s warning about mining in conflict zones is both realistic and self-critical. He openly acknowledges that mining can either stabilize or destabilize conflict-prone regions, depending on how it is conducted and by whom. He underscores that corruption and poor governance in extractive industries remain serious risks in countries like Ukraine and the DRC—risks now heightened by deregulation efforts.
The presenter advocates for continued adherence to frameworks like the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) (opens in a new tab), though the actual enforcement power of such voluntary measures remains limited.
The podcast closes on the global stage, where Dhawan addresses the rising demand for minerals due to the energy transition and population growth. His projection that global copper demand may jump by only a few percentage points but still trigger shortages due to tight supply is fact-based and consistent with industry analysis. Moreover, his warning that maritime disruption in a future U.S.-China conflict could cripple supply chains is also a plausible risk, though he calls its likelihood low.
Overall, the conversation seems balanced, informed, and largely free from misinformation—grounded in realistic industry timelines, cautious geopolitical framing, and a refreshing admission that mining, if mismanaged, can cause more harm than good.
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