Highlights

• China dominates rare earth and critical mineral markets, using strategic pricing and export manipulation to control global supply chains.
• Major economies like the US, EU, and Japan are scrambling to secure mineral resources through trade agreements, domestic mining, and strategic stockpiling.
• The green energy transition risks becoming a zero-sum geopolitical conflict over mineral access and control.

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A new paper (opens in a new tab) by Jyoti Ahuja, Robert Lee, and Aleksandra Čavoški from the University of Birmingham (opens in a new tab) dissects the geopolitics of access to critical minerals in the context of global energy transitions. Published in Global Energy Law and Sustainability, the study’s hypothesis is clear: the race to decarbonize energy systems has triggered economic protectionism, supply chain vulnerabilities, and an uneven playing field in global trade.

Key Findings--A Shift from Free Trade to Resource Hoarding

The paper provides a sobering assessment of how major economies are weaponizing access to critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. It highlights that while the Paris Agreement catalyzed demand for low-carbon technologies, it also set off a geopolitical scramble to control mineral supply chains. China dominates the rare earth market, processing nearly 90% of global output, while 70% of cobalt refining relies on China-controlled infrastructure.

 Meanwhile, the U.S., EU, and Japan are scrambling to secure supply through trade agreements, domestic mining, and strategic stockpiles.

A critical insight from the paper is that China's rare earth policies are not just about resource control but market manipulation. After losing WTO trade disputes over export restrictions, Beijing consolidated its rare earth industry under state-owned giants, suppressed global prices to squeeze out competitors, and then restricted exports again once dominance was secured.

DataAnomalies and Red Flags--Who Holds the Power?

A deep dive into the study’s data reveals serious cracks in the foundation of global mineral supply chains, exposing contradictions and potential market manipulation. Lithium’s price crash—a staggering 75% drop in 2024—defies the logic of soaring demand, raising questions about whether China and Chile deliberately flooded the market to undercut competitors. Meanwhile, cobalt’s price swings highlight another red flag. Despite a declining demand for cobalt-based batteries, Indonesia or other dominant players are deliberately crashing prices to destroy Western competitors.

• How Are Mining-Dependent Economies Reacting? The study overlooks the economic consequences for countries like the DRC, Chile, and Australia, which depend on mineral exports. Are they aligning with China’s strategy, or are they seeking alternative trade routes?
• What Happens When the U.S. and EU Hit Their Stockpile Limits? The U.S. and Japan aggressively stockpile critical minerals, but how sustainable is this strategy? The paper does not examine what happens when these reserves deplete amid rising demand.

A Resource War Underway

The University of Birmingham’s study exposes the fragile foundation of the global energy transition. While it effectively outlines the rise of economic nationalism and resource protectionism, it fails to interrogate the long-term consequences of this shift. Governments are trading one energy dependency for another, and the geopolitical stakes are escalating into full-blown economic warfare.

If current trends continue, the green transition could become a brutal, zero-sum game—not a path to sustainable development. To avoid this outcome, policymakers must move beyond stockpiling and subsidies and confront the real question: who controls the minerals that power the future?