Highlights
- Global metals sector experiences volatility with weakening EV demand and rising interest in green hydrogen technologies.
- China leads strategic positioning in critical minerals, focusing on technological innovation and industrial policy transformation.
- International markets see increasing ‘ex-China’ deals to diversify rare earth and strategic metal supply chains.
The global metals sector appears to navigate shifting demand, strategic reorientation, and technological transition. At the forefront is weakening EV sentiment—exemplified by Tesla’s slashed sales forecasts and plunging stock—which casts a shadow over short-term demand for critical metals like rare earths, copper, and lithium.
Simultaneously, a resurgent interest in green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies is gaining momentum across China, suggesting a parallel pivot in energy and industrial policy. Alongside these shifts, market dynamics reveal pricing volatility driven by geopolitical tensions (e.g., tin supply disruptions in the DRC), tight raw material supplies, and macroeconomic uncertainty tied to U.S. trade policies post-election. Interestingly Chinese media has yet to pick up on the critical minerals executive order announced in America.
Amid these undercurrents, emerging themes become cleared. For example, China is accelerating its domestic energy transformation, leaning heavily into hydrogen (opens in a new tab) and next-gen battery tech, even as global copper and aluminum markets tighten on logistics and arbitrage distortions. Meanwhile, regional price divergence, cautious downstream purchasing, and patchy recovery in infrastructure all point to a fragmented, transitional phase for the metals market. The sector is increasingly being shaped not just by supply and demand but by policy, politics, and platform shifts—with China aiming to lead in all three. Chinese media, such as Shanghai Metals Market, does not cover market manipulation and what is essentially economic warfare involving the intertwined State and rare earth and critical minerals sector.
Asian Metal reporting for the week reveals a tightly interwoven set of emerging trends across the critical minerals and rare earth metals space, pointing to a bifurcated global market shaped by technology, geopolitics, and industrial policy shifts.
A slew of upcoming summits and forums—including the Rare Earth, Magnesium, Antimony, InBiGeGa (Indium, Bismuth, Germanium, Gallium), and Tin forums—suggests intensified coordination and strategic planning among producers, traders, and technologists in response to volatile pricing and shifting demand. This is where much business occurs, especially in China.
Complementing this is a wave of industry-specific research reports covering everything from lithium and silicon carbide to chrome and antimony, underscoring the need for granular, data-driven strategy in a fragmented supply chain environment.
On the demand side, interviews with executives spotlight divergent market trajectories: rising demand for aluminum ingots, neodymium magnets, zinc hypoxide, and aluminum fluoride, while titanium sponge, mercury, and green silicon carbide show signs of stagnation or decline.
Meanwhile, trade and production headlines reveal an intensifying rare earths arms race as Rare Earth Exchanges chronicles—China expanding bonded magnet and wet smelting capacity, while international players like Aclara, Meteoric Resources,and Critical Metals scale up in Brazil and Greenland. Lots of“ex” China deals unfolded this week (see below).
Pricing data highlights ongoing stress in concentrate treatment charges (TCs), especially for copper, where margins are under severe compression. In sum, the metals market is moving into a new phase defined by regional consolidation, end-use diversification, and policy-aligned growth, with rare earths and strategic minor metals playing a central role in shaping global industrial competitiveness.
On to a major Chinese market mover, at the 14th National People’s Congress (opens in a new tab), State-backed conglomerate Baogang Group Party Secretary Meng Fanying emphasized that technological innovation is central to the company’s high-quality development strategy, highlighting its push to integrate “rare earth + steel” advanced materials into key sectors like high-speed rail and wind power.
By aligning with major national initiatives, Baogang is not only modernizing its operations but also playing a strategic role in revitalizing China’s steel industry and strengthening its leadership in rare earth applications.
China’s quiet about the flurry of “ex China” deals as companies and governments intensify their efforts to start reducing China’s leverage over national economies.
This week, Rare Earth Exchanges reported on multiple ex-China deals with companies such as mining venture Arafura inking a deal with Luxembourg-based Traxys to buy rare earth offtake. Korea’s POSCO structured an MOU with U.S.-based uranium miner Energy Fuels to mine rare earth elements to develop an automobile-focused supply chain ex-China. The Japanese also signed a €200 million deal with France-based rare earth recycling venture Carester (opens in a new tab).
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