Rare Earth Exchanges

Trump’s Critical Minerals Gambit: Canada’s Uncertain Future

Leave a Comment

Highlights

  • Canada struggles to secure its role as a critical minerals supplier to the U.S. amid growing political tension.
  • Trump’s administration increasingly pressures Canada, threatening potential economic annexation and mineral supply control.
  • Canada lacks domestic refining capacity and an independent critical minerals strategy.
  • Canada is left vulnerable to U.S. and Chinese economic maneuvers.

Rare Earth Exchanges continues its focus on Canada today, Saturday, February 8th, 2025.  The Trudeau government continues to scramble to solidify Canada’s role as a critical minerals supplier to the U.S., amid growing tensions with President Donald Trump, who has floated the idea of absorbing Canada as the 51st state.  Of course, Canadians are not happy with such a proposition, but they may be in more of a corner than they would like to admit.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson (opens in a new tab) has acknowledged that Trump’s push to secure minerals may be a driving force behind these remarks, which have shifted from offhand jokes to repeated declarations_._  

Rare Earth Exchanges, a company based in Salt Lake City, Utah was founded to chronicle and potentially support America’s move to critical mineral and rare earth element supply chain resilience.

With China tightening its grip on global critical mineral supply chains, Wilkinson argues that Canada’s minerals—including nickel, lithium, and rare earths—are essential to U.S. strategic interests. While Canada hopes to leverage this dependence into a stronger economic partnership, there’s no denying the looming threat of U.S. tariffs and political coercion.

Rare Earth Exchanges covered a recent piece (opens in a new tab) in the National Post.

This recent piece by Stephanie Taylor accurately captures the deepening tension between Canada and the U.S. over critical minerals and the power imbalance in trade negotiations. It rightly highlights that Canada is in a precarious position, as it depends heavily on the U.S. market, particularly for energy and mineral exports. It also notes that China’s export bans on certain critical minerals have heightened the U.S. urgency to secure non-Chinese supply chains, making Canada’s resources a prime target.

The article also correctly frames Trump’s actions as increasingly aggressive, particularly his tariff threats and pressure tactics. While Trudeau initially dismissed Trump’s “51st state” remark as a joke, the escalating rhetoric suggests a calculated strategy to assert dominance over Canada’s resource sector.

Missing the Mark?

However, the article fails to acknowledge Canada’s own vulnerabilities and lack of a coherent critical minerals strategy. While Wilkinson speaks of Canada’s importance to the U.S., he sidesteps the uncomfortable reality that Canada lacks the refining capacity for many critical minerals. The U.S. doesn’t just need raw materials; it needs processed and refined minerals ready for high-tech applications—and China dominates that stage of the supply chain.

Moreover, the piece doesn’t explore Canada’s limited alternatives if the U.S. imposes trade restrictions. If Canada seeks to “diversify” and reduce reliance on U.S. exports, where exactly will these minerals go? Europe? This is unlikely, given their own dependence on Chinese processing.

The article also avoids discussing Canada’s lack of domestic investment in mineral development, which has left the country dependent on foreign (often Chinese) investment to develop its own mines.

The Bigger Picture: Is Canada a Pawn in a U.S.-China Economic War?

Trudeau and Wilkinson talk about partnerships, but in reality, Canada is being backed into a corner. The U.S. has made it clear that securing critical minerals is a matter of national security, and Trump’s administration will not hesitate to use economic and political pressure to get what it wants. If Canada does not take urgent steps to develop its own refining capabilities and create an independent critical minerals strategy, it risks becoming nothing more than a resource colony for the U.S.—or worse, a target for economic annexation under coercive trade policies.

The real question could come down to this: Will Canada assert its sovereignty in the critical minerals race, or will it simply yield to U.S. pressure as Trump tightens the screws?

Spread the word: