Highlights
- The U.S. is critically dependent on China for essential minerals, with full import reliance on 12 minerals and over 50% reliance on 29 others.
- A fragmented government approach and slow permitting processes threaten national security and technological innovation.
- Without a coherent industrial policy and aggressive global engagement, the U.S. risks losing control of critical mineral supply chains to China.
In a searing new report and presentation, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) exposed the dangerous state (opens in a new tab) of U.S. critical mineral dependency, warning of escalating geopolitical risk and systemic dysfunction within the federal government. The event, led by Gracelin Baskaran and featuring analysts, including Matt Zais and Joseph Majkut, coincided with the release of Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy. (opens in a new tab) The message was clear: the U.S. remains dangerously reliant on foreign adversaries—especially China—for the minerals that power its defense, energy, and technology sectors.
The Basics: Overwhelming USA Dependence on China
According to CSIS, the U.S. is fully import-reliant on 12 critical minerals and over 50% reliant on another 29. China controls most of the global supply chain, refining 98% of the world’s gallium and over 60% of germanium. While defense planners understand the stakes, Matt Zais emphasized that even wartime readiness is at risk due to collapsing funding for Defense Production Act programs and the National Defense Stockpile. The report also excoriates the U.S. permitting system, which often drags mine development out for nearly 30 years, calling the regulatory gridlock a direct threat to national security.
USA Remains Adrift….Fragmented…Reactionary?
Internally, CSIS finds the U.S. government adrift, fragmented across 15 agencies with no unified mineral strategy. This bureaucratic bloat has paralyzed decision-making and discouraged private investment. Meanwhile, the surge in electric vehicle demand is projected to drive 75% of mineral growth by 2025, but erratic tariffs and lack of innovation policy threaten to cripple the industry. Even flagship legislation like the CHIPS Act is riddled with blind spots; it failed to secure upstream mineral inputs, leaving semiconductor fabs exposed to Chinese dominance in gallium and germanium.
Despite identifying over 30 projects globally, the U.S.-led Mineral Security Partnership (MSP) lacks the tools to compete with China’s far more aggressive resource diplomacy, which uses concessional loans, infrastructure projects, and industrial policy to lock up supply. Deep-sea mining, another potential lifeline, is a glaring gap: the U.S. has no strategy and remains locked out of the international regulatory regime due to non-participation in the Law of the Sea convention. China, by contrast, is already executing.
Partially There
While CSIS rightly emphasizes midstream investment and workforce development, the discussion skirted key issues. The team skirts the critical topic of rare earth magnet manufacturing—a core vulnerability for defense and clean tech. There was no actionable roadmap to reform the DPA, no investment blueprint with tax credits or procurement guarantees, and no plan to expand geological exploration via the U.S. Geological Survey.Even with clear recognition of the crisis, the recommendations fellshort of laying out a war-footing strategy.
The takeaway is sobering: CSIS has illuminated the contours of America’s mineral crisis, but the roadmap remains incomplete. Without a coherent industrial policy, deep regulatory reform, and aggressive global engagement, the U.S. risks ceding permanent control of the future of critical minerals to China. The time for pilot programs and process reviews is over—what’s needed now is execution.
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