Highlights

• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggests the U.S. is 'about halfway' in securing rare earth magnet access from China.
• China currently dominates global rare earth element value chains, controlling approximately 70% of mining and 90% of processing.
• The ongoing trade negotiations are critical for U.S. technology, defense, and electronics industries dependent on Chinese rare earth magnets.

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Axios reports U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s (opens in a new tab) cautious optimism on rare earth access from China, stating the U.S. is “about halfway there” in talks to maintain the flow of Chinese rare earth magnets. The talks are nested within the broader, unstable trade truce set to expire August 12 — a looming cliff edge for both critical minerals and market sentiment.

Greer’s remarks, given to CBS’s Face the Nation, underscore rare earths as the “core piece” of these negotiations. But with U.S. officials disputing China's announcement of a tariff truce extension, clarity is as scarce as dysprosium on Wall Street.

What Rings True: Rare Earth Reality Check

• China dominates global REE value chains: ~70% of mining and ~90% of processing globally. The U.S. is dependent on Chinese rare earth magnets for EVs, defense systems, and electronics — fact, not spin.
• Access to Chinese REE exports remains a strategic vulnerability. Greer’s emphasis on magnets is well-founded; they’re the bottleneck and the leverage point in any escalation.

What’s Missing: Strategic Alternatives

The Axios piece presents Greer’s quote as the pivot point of U.S. rare earth policy — but that’s too narrow. Missing is context on the U.S.’s domestic countermeasures: the Brook Mine launch by Ramaco in Wyoming, the Department of Defense’s recent $400M anchor investment in MP Materials, and policy signals encouraging rare earth magnet manufacturing on U.S. soil. Without these details, the narrative overstates the near-term reliance on China and ignores efforts toward “ex-China” industrial autonomy.

Watch the Clock, Not the Chatter

With the tariff truce expiring on August 12, business leaders and commodity traders face a credibility crunch. Axios rightly highlights this uncertainty, but fails to interrogate how many of these trade “deals” are ephemeral. In the words of one analyst, “The U.S. isn’t halfway to autonomy — it’s halfway between panic and policy.” That nuance is lost here.

Verdict: Incomplete but Instructive

Axios offers a clear snapshot of Greer’s message but falls short on the broader rare earth chessboard. Investors and policymakers should track not only diplomatic signals from Stockholm, but also tangible domestic moves that could rewire the U.S. REE ecosystem—deal or no deal.

Source: Axios (August 3, 2025), Ben Berkowitz interview with U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer.

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