Highlights

• IEA reports critical mineral investment grew only 5% in 2024, significantly slowing down from previous years.
• Lithium prices collapsed over 80% from 2022 highs, creating market uncertainty for new industry entrants.
• China and Indonesia now dominate 90% of new critical mineral supply growth, contradicting global diversification efforts.

Global ambition falters under geopolitical reality and price volatility.

In a twist that highlights the global disconnect between energy transition rhetoric and mining-sector investment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its 2025 Outlook, revealing that investment in critical minerals slowed sharply in 2024, despite surging long-term demand.

According to the IEA, overall investment in critical minerals grew just 5% last year, less than half the pace of 2023. When adjusted for inflation, real growth stood at a paltry 2%, marking a clear retreat in momentum. Exploration activity flatlined, and startup funding weakened, particularly for battery metals like cobalt and nickel.

Meanwhile, lithium prices collapsed more than 80% from 2022 highs, sending a stark message to new entrants: the market may want your supply, but not at your price.

The Economic Times (opens in a new tab) recently addressed the situation, and Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) reviewed the actual IEA report. (opens in a new tab)

Even more concerning, the IEA confirms that refined material production is becoming more geographically concentrated, not less, despite years of policy promises about diversification. China and Indonesia account for approximately 90% of the new supply growth in key minerals, including nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. Between 2020 and 2024, the top three refining nations increased their market share from 82% to 86%.

In other words, just as governments around the world trumpet the importance of energy security and supply diversification, the actual market reality is one of consolidation, not dispersion—a truly ironic unfolding reality.

“Investors are understandably spooked,” reports an industry analyst on condition of anonymity. “Between Chinese dominance in refining and unpredictable Western trade policy, capital is hesitating—even as every policy roadmap demands exponential growth in critical mineral supply.”

REEx calls on governments and institutional investors to align industrial policy with actual financial incentives and to accelerate investment into secure, diversified rare earth and critical mineral infrastructure—before supply insecurity becomes the next global crisis.