Highlights

• China's export suspension of seven heavy rare earths has disrupted global manufacturing.
• The suspension has especially impacted India's electronics and defense sectors.
• Indian IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw remains optimistic about finding alternatives.
• Experts warn of critical processing infrastructure challenges.
• India is engaging with the U.S. to potentially reduce technology tariffs.
• India aims to accelerate critical minerals cooperation with the U.S. amid growing strategic tensions.

As China escalates its strategic rare earth metals blockade, Indian government and industry leaders are scrambling to adapt. Union IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw (opens in a new tab) struck a confident tone Friday, declaring that India’s fast-growing electronics sector will “figure out alternatives” to Chinese rare earths and critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and antimony. But global analysts say replacing China’s processing dominance is easier said than done. Indian Express (opens in a new tab) and other media in the world’s fifth-largest economy and now the most populous nation raise concern.

China’s suspension of exports on seven heavy rare earths—including dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium—has rattled downstream manufacturers worldwide. While India sources some raw materials from outside China, it remains critically dependent on Chinese-processed inputs for magnets, semiconductors, and high-frequency components used in everything from smartphones to missile systems.

Vaishnaw’s optimism comes amid rising strategic engagement with the U.S., including an upcoming visit from Vice President JD Vance, expected to finalize components of a bilateral trade agreement that could reduce U.S.-India technology tariffs and accelerate cooperation on critical minerals. Yet experts caution: without major investment in midstream infrastructure and separation facilities, India’s ambitions could stall.

India’s rhetoric of resilience is politically expedient, but economically, the nation faces the same bottleneck as its Western allies: China’s near-total control of rare earth processing. Without urgent diversification and investment, the risk of cascading shutdowns in India’s electronics and defense sectors remains a real concern.