Highlights

• Nigeria aims to develop its critical minerals industry through:
  • Geological mapping
  • Exploration funding
  • Mandatory local processing of minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt
• Significant progress includes:
  • 146 lithium mining licenses issued in 2023
  • China-backed processing plants being commissioned in Nasarawa state
• Challenges remain in:
  • Exploration
  • Reserve verification
  • Establishing a complete midstream processing capability for rare earth elements

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A Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) review of critical minerals in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy.  Nigeria’s latest policy brief from Africa Policy Research Institute (opens in a new tab) (APRI) reads like a manifesto: map the subsurface, fund exploration, force local processing, and ride lithium, nickel, cobalt—and even rare earth showings in Ebonyi and Plateau—into a clean-tech future. It’s an ambitious, coherent roadmap, not a fever dream. The brief is real, recent, and specific about the levers: geological data, licensing discipline, and midstream build-out.

The bricks on the ground are not imaginary. Abuja did issue 146 lithium mining licenses in 2023. China-backed Avatar New Energy Materials Co Ltd (Avatar New Energy) commissioned a 4,000-tonnes/day lithium processing plant in Nasarawa (opens in a new tab) in May 2024, and another China-backed venture, Canmax Technologies (opens in a new tab), publicly flagged ~$200 million for another facility. The State House amplified both projects, tying them to a broader “manufacture-at-home” ambition. These are factual markers of momentum, not just press-release confetti.

Policy is also swinging in one direction: beneficiation. In 2024, the federal government banned offshore processing, paired with a sweeping license clean-up—a signal to traders that raw-ore arbitrage is over. Whether enforcement keeps pace is the open question, but the intent is unambiguous and on the record.

Now the salt. Grand claims—“$700B minerals,” vast REE potential—are more politics than bankable geology without modern exploration. Nigeria’s exploration spend (~$2.5M) still trails Côte d’Ivoire and DRC by orders of magnitude; the subsurface picture remains grainy, and project finance hates grainy. Even government-backed processing “hubs” referenced in policy circles have struggled to reach full operation. Timelines should be read as aspirational, not imminent.

For rare earths, caution rises another notch. Listing occurrences is not the same as showing separation capacity and off-takes. REE midstream remains China-centric; Nigeria has yet to prove its reserves, conduct pilot separation, and qualify its products. Treat near-term REE revenue as speculative until those steps are public and independently verifiable.

Why investors should care anyway? Lithium is moving; REEs are not—yet. The Avatar/Canmax build validates Nigeria’s “process-at-home” posture and could anchor a genuine midstream—if grid, security, and logistics cooperate.

Western optionality is real, too

Glencore has kicked the tires on Nigeria, but like any major, it will demand stability, data, and clear rules before penning checks. Watch exploration budgets, public geodata releases, enforcement of beneficiation rules, and the first independent off-takes from Nigerian refineries. Until then, file this as a credible blueprint, not a victory lap.

Citations: APRI policy brief (opens in a new tab) (Sep 25, 2025); Business Post (146 lithium licenses, Jan 31, 2024); Nasarawa State/BusinessDay reports on Avatar (May 2024) and Canmax (~$200M); Vanguard (beneficiation ban, May 2024); Reuters (Glencore interest, Apr 26, 2024).

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