Highlights

• China dominates global lanthanum supply, producing over 70% of rare earth elements crucial for jet fuel refining.
• Lanthanum stabilizes zeolite Y catalysts in refineries, enabling flexible jet fuel production with significant national security implications.
• While not a catastrophic risk, lanthanum supply concentration represents a strategic vulnerability in military fuel infrastructure.

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A piece today authored by  Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, and Jahara Matisek  of the Atlantic Council (opens in a new tab) make a sharp point: JP-8 jet fuel, NATO’s lifeblood, relies indirectly on lanthanum. Lanthanum stabilizes zeolite Y catalysts in refinery Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units, giving refiners the flexibility to maximize jet-fuel yields. Without it, catalysts wear faster and output is less efficient. This technical link is accurate—lanthanum’s role in FCC catalysts is well documented, even if it rarely surfaces in strategic debates.

The Hard Facts

• China’s control: Beijing dominates global lanthanum supply, producing over 70% of REEs, including lanthanum salts used in FCC catalysts.
• Domestic moves: MP Materials now supplies lanthanum carbonate to US catalyst vendors, a modest but important diversification.
• Operational risk: Losing lanthanum supply wouldn’t ground NATO aircraft overnight, but it would reduce refinery flexibility, drive up catalyst costs, and erode surge capacity. These points are technically valid and align with industry data.

Where the Story Slants

The article frames lanthanum as a near-existential “hidden risk” to US warfighting. That risks exaggeration. In reality, refiners have workarounds: using lanthanum-lean catalysts, adjusting FCC operating conditions, or leaning more on hydrocracking. The penalties are economic and efficiency-related, not catastrophic. The framing also underplays the fact that lanthanum is one of the more abundant rare earths, and unlike terbium or dysprosium, it is not geologically scarce. The chokepoint is more about processing and trade concentration than absolute resource limits.

What’s Not Said

There’s little mention of global stockpiles or the fact that refiners typically manage catalyst inventories months in advance. Nor does it explore potential substitution research—industry and academia are already experimenting with catalyst formulations that reduce or bypass lanthanum reliance. By leaving these out, the narrative risks sliding into alarmism.

Why This Matters for Supply Chains

Still, the underlying warning resonates: lanthanum is another example of how rare earths underpin not just gadgets but national security infrastructure. Its role in catalysts links critical minerals directly to fuel security, an angle often overlooked in defense policy circles. For investors and policymakers, the notable takeaway is that bulk rare earths like lanthanum deserve as much scrutiny as flashy magnet materials, because even a “cheap” element can create strategic leverage if supply chains are overly concentrated.

Source: The Atlantic Council (opens in a new tab)

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