Highlights
- Kachin Independence Army captures northern Myanmar's rare earth mining region, controlling half the world's heavy rare earth minerals.
- The takeover has caused an 89% decrease in China's mineral imports and aims to pressure Beijing's support of Myanmar's military junta.
- India shows growing interest in the region's mineral resources, potentially creating a new geopolitical resource competition.
In October 2024, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, seized control of the northern region's rare earth mining belt, notably capturing the town of Pang War. This area is significant, producing approximately half of the world's heavy rare earth minerals, which are essential for manufacturing wind turbines and electric vehicles.
The KIA's takeover has severely disrupted the supply chain to China, leading to an 89% decrease in China's imports of these minerals from Myanmar by February 2025. The KIA aims to leverage control over these resources to pressure Beijing into withdrawing support for Myanmar's military junta and to gain backing for their cause.
The conflict has broader regional implications. Reports indicate that India has expressed interest in Myanmar's rare earth minerals, with state-run mining firms exploring opportunities in the Kachin region. Indian officials have reportedly engaged with Kachin representatives and shown a willingness to offer higher prices than China for these resources.
However, as of now, no formal agreements have been confirmed. The situation remains fluid, with the KIA awaiting a response from Beijing before considering alternative trade partnerships.
The problem for China (and maybe India in the future) is to what degree will HRE supply from the likes of Myanmar and the DRC become the focus of serious ESG compliance demands? Will the US, etc., allow selected ROW RE wannabees to ‘suffer’ the economic costs of ESG compliance while others are allowed to skirt such additional costs, making their products cheaper on the global market? One major related issue presently is those pesky RE magnets, their manufacturing location, and implications for the US military complex (why do we think Xi has not yet sanctioned them?). Will this change this decade? GLTA – REI