Highlights

• China controls 94-98% of global gallium output, wielding significant leverage in critical minerals that are essential for defense, telecom, and AI hardware.
• The US faces a critical moment in supply chain strategy, with the potential to diversify and reduce dependence on Chinese mineral exports.
• Investors should watch emerging opportunities in non-Chinese rare earth and critical mineral supply chains as geopolitical tensions drive market transformations.

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The National Interest (opens in a new tab) framesTrump’s trade war as collapsing under China’s mineral might. Citing Beijing’s 2024 export bans on gallium and germanium, the article correctly notes that China controls roughly 94–98% of global gallium output and the majority of germanium supply. These numbers, according to Brandon J. Weichert, align with USGS and industry estimates. It is also accurate that gallium nitride (GaN) and germanium are mission-critical for defense, telecom, and AI hardware. The article is right to emphasize the U.S. failure to build serious redundancy in supply chains despite years of warnings.

The National Interest is a foreign policy magazine founded by conservatives Irving Kristol (opens in a new tab) and Owen Harries (opens in a new tab), advocating for American interests through strategic realism (opens in a new tab). 

Where the Story Leans Hard

The narrative leans heavily on “Trump caved” rhetoric. References to his praise of Xi Jinping and student visa concessions are interpreted as evidence of desperation. While those events occurred, the cause-and-effect link to mineral leverage is speculative. This is where journalism drifts into theater: correlation is presented as causation. The piece also assumes that tariffs alone define America’s strategy, downplaying Defense Production Act investments, DOE loans, and DoD OSC rare earth projects already underway. It’s very true that Trump has done more for American and ex-China rare earth and critical mineral policy than any other president in decades.

Hints of Overreach

The suggestion that the U.S. is “conceding ground” wholesale ignores moves to accelerate gallium recovery from bauxite in Louisiana, germanium from zinc smelters in Tennessee, and European diversification efforts. The article treats China’s dominance as static and unbreakable, but in reality, prices and substitution technologies are forcing cracks in Beijing’s monopoly. The author also injects Nassim Taleb’s “anti-fragile” framework to elevate China’s position, a flourish that sounds compelling but is more opinion than hard fact.  Herein, the authors describe systems that not only resist shocks but actively gain strength and capability from stressors, volatility, randomness, and disorder. Unlike fragile things (which break under stress) and robust or resilient things (which simply withstand it), antifragile systems thrive on these chaotic elements, becoming stronger and more capable through them.

What Matters for Rare Earth Investors

The real headline isn’t whether Trump “lost” the trade war—it’s that critical minerals are the battlefield where both sides have equal power to inflict pain. The U.S. can strangle chips; China can strangle the minerals that make chips possible. For investors and policymakers, this moment underscores two truths:

1. China’s leverage is real, but not permanent. Heavy state investment can shift processing capacity westward if backed by consistent demand.  But Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) has issued statements of concern. Far more needs to be done on the critical mineral and rare earth element supply chain front.
2. The U.S. government’s credibility is on the line. If Washington cannot turn its rhetoric into operational refining and mining projects, investors will continue to see China as the only stable long-term play.  And this issue points back to our concerns in number one.

Bottom Line

The National Interest piece captures the urgency but leans into drama over detail. The facts about China’s dominance stand, but the sweeping claim of U.S. capitulation misses the more nuanced, high-stakes tug-of-war. For Rare Earth Exchanges readers, the takeaway is simple: this is not the end of America’s leverage, but the start of an unforgiving decade where every supply chain move will matter**.**

Investor Takeaway

For investors, the battlefield is not abstract—it’s balance sheets and project pipelines. Expect volatility across U.S.-listed REE equities like MP Materials and Energy Fuels as markets digest both Trump’s tariff brinkmanship and China’s tightening grip. Institutional capital is already flowing toward diversification bets in Canada and Australia, while retail traders should watch mid-cap developers in processing and recycling, where geopolitical momentum could translate into rapid upside. The bottom line: China’s squeeze is real, but it is also catalyzing capital, creating asymmetric opportunities for those positioned early in the non-Chinese supply chain. Rare Earth Exchanges emphasizes the need for more targeted, comprehensive, and multifaceted industrial policy linked to the reindustrialization of the ex-China supply chain.

Source:  The National Interest

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