Rare Earth Exchanges

Rising EMM Export Volume Signals Active Downstream Demand

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Highlights

  • China’s EMM exports increased 3.37% month-on-month in December 2024, totaling 28,279 metric tons.
  • Overseas customers increased stockpiling ahead of Christmas, with downstream steel mills driving demand.
  • Export data reveals global dependence on Chinese critical mineral supply chains and strategic market positioning.

The Shanghai Metals Market (opens in a new tab) (SMM) reports that China’s exports of electrolytic manganese metal (EMM), defined as a critical mineral-related product in the U.S., experienced a notable uptick in December 2024, driven by robust downstream purchasing activity. According to statistics from China’s General Administration of Customs, exports of unwrought manganese, scrap, and powder totaled 28,279 metric tons (mt), marking a 3.37% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 10% year-on-year (YoY) rise. Conversely, exports of wrought manganese and manganese products declined sharply by 33.55% MoM to 2,759 mt, resulting in a total export volume of 31,000 mt, down 1.50% MoM.

The increase in unwrought manganese exports is attributed to seasonal factors. Overseas customers ramped up their stockpiling ahead of the Christmas season to ensure stable raw material supplies. Additionally, downstream steel mills engaged in winter stockpiling, further fueling demand for EMM. This uptick in purchasing reflects the strategic importance of EMM as a key input in steel production and other industrial applications.

Implications for the Rare Earth and Specialty Metals Market

The December 2024 data reflects evolving market dynamics in critical mineral supply chains, highlighting a few significant trends, which include 1) global dependence on Chinese supply, 2) seasonal and stockpiling trends, and 3) impact on downstream industries. The sharp decline in wrought manganese exports may signal shifting preferences toward raw materials over finished products.

Strategic Takeaways

China’s ability to adjust its exports to meet global demand underscores its dominance in the manganese and broader critical minerals markets. The data emphasize the need for countries seeking to reduce dependency on Chinese exports to invest in domestic production and alternative supply chains.

This active December performance highlights both the strengths and vulnerabilities of global supply chains. While China continues to meet international demand efficiently, the concentration of its processing and export capabilities raises long-term strategic questions for countries reliant on these critical materials.

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