Highlights

• China controls over 90% of global rare earth separation capacity, creating critical vulnerabilities in U.S. defense systems including F-35s, radar arrays, and satellites that depend on neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.
• India Today's October 2025 article accurately highlights export curbs and U.S. dependence on Chinese processing, but overstates the 'mineral war' narrative.
• The article omits emerging diversification efforts by Australia, Canada, and the EU.
• The piece correctly identifies the urgent need for Western refining capacity—not just mining.
• Investors should recognize that China's dominance resulted from decades of industrial policy the West outsourced, not simply strategic manipulation.

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India Today’s October 18 article, “China just found America's Achilles heel,” crackles with urgency and drama—and rightfully so. Rare earths are the invisible sinews of modern warfare. F-35s, radar arrays, satellites, and submarines all pulse with neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. The article’s vivid framing—that China has militarized the minerals market—is grounded in fact. With over 90% of global separation capacity and near-total control of certain heavy rare earths, Beijing holds the valve. That alone earns the headline its geopolitical weight.

From Accuracy to Alloyed Assumptions

To its credit, the piece (opens in a new tab) outlines verifiable truths: the U.S. is critically dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, even shipping raw materials from its lone producer, MP Materials, back to China for refinement. China's October 2025 export curbs are also real, targeting gallium, germanium, and others.

But where the article sharpens into speculation is in portraying this moment as a full-scale “mineral war.” There’s a leap from calculated export policy to outright “economic blackmail.” While the strategic intent is undeniable, the rhetoric edges toward alarmist. Beijing’s moves are shrewd and retaliatory, yes—but they are also bureaucratically predictable and couched in “green” policy language, which the article reduces to pure optics.  The reality remains more nuanced.

Where Bias Bubbles

The tone is steeped in confrontation, framing China’s dominance as not just strategic but sinister. That risks flattening nuance: China didn’t stumble into rare earth dominance—it spent three decades building it with subsidies, labor, and environmental tradeoffs the West outsourced!  The U.S. neglected industrial policy. That’s not villainy—that’s volatility in global planning and some accountability and self-reflection necessary for recovery and revitalization.

Nor does the article acknowledge new entrants or diversification efforts. Australia’s Lynas and Arafura, Canada’s Vital Metals, and the EU’s emerging separation hubs are conspicuously absent. The reality is complex: China dominates, but it isn’t alone, and the supply chain map is beginning to redraft.

The Investor’s Compass

What matters most: the article illuminates rare earths as national security linchpins. It underscores the urgent need for refining capacity in the West, not just mines. And it warns investors—accurately—that raw resource nationalism is back in fashion. But at 1,800+ words, it sometimes trades clarity for drama. At Rare Earth Exchanges, we say: keep the fire, but temper the forge.

Source: India Today, “China just found America's Achilles heel,” October 18, 2025

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