Highlights
- U.S. proposals to source rare earth elements from Myanmar are fundamentally unworkable due to legal, logistical, and geopolitical barriers.
- Myanmar lacks domestic processing capacity, with all rare earth element processing running through China.
- Myanmar faces significant environmental and legal challenges.
- Any attempt to extract rare earth minerals from Myanmar risks sanctions violations, civil backlash, and potentially deeper Chinese involvement.
Amara Thiha’s commentary for the Washington DC think tank Stimson Center (opens in a new tab) delivers a clear-eyed takedown of the recent proposals floated to source rare earth elements (REEs) from Myanmar. With U.S. policymakers reportedly weighing engagement with either the junta-controlled SAC or the rebel Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the article argues—correctly—that these proposals are not just flawed, but dead on arrival.
What Holds Up Under Scrutiny? Almost Everything
Thiha’s key factual claims are well-supported and match public reporting:
| Challenges | Summary |
| Logistics black hole | Myanmar has no domestic capacity for REE separation or high-purity magnet production. All such processing runs through China, often informally, with materials trucked straight across the Yunnan border. |
| KIA’s dependence on China | Despite its insurgent status, the KIA operates as a functional client of China, relying on Beijing for trade, fuel, construction goods, and political cover. This dependency is not theoretical—it’s entrenched. |
| Legal and financial blockade | U.S. and EU due diligence laws make sourcing from Myanmar functionally illegal. The OECD framework prohibits payments to armed groups, and U.S. sanctions on the SAC and material support laws put both ends of the Myanmar political spectrum out of bounds. |
| Environmental baggage | Deforestation, toxic waste, and social displacement from REE mining in Kachin are well-documented. Civil society groups are already on alert and would immediately mobilize against any Western-backed venture. All told, this is not a speculative critique—it’s a comprehensive red flag catalog. |
Any Spin or Stretch? Minimal
Unlike many REE narratives that exaggerate the promise of untapped deposits, Thiha’s piece does not overreach. There’s no suggestion that Myanmar lacks REEs—only that, under current conditions, no amount of ore justifies the legal, logistical, or geopolitical risk. The only point requiring caution is the implied certainty of Chinese retaliation; while plausible, the scope of potential escalation is ultimately speculative.
Just Because It’s Rare Doesn’t Mean It’s Reachable
Myanmar might have rare earths in the ground, but there’s no compliant, scalable, or strategically sound way to extract them for U.S. supply chains. Any such attempt risks sanctions violations, civil backlash, and—ironically—deeper Chinese entrenchment. For policymakers and investors, this isn’t just a bad idea. It’s a trap disguised as opportunity.
Source: Amara Thiha, “Four Reasons Why Proposals to Source Rare Earth Minerals from Myanmar Will Not Succeed (opens in a new tab),” The Stimson Center, August 1, 2025.
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