Highlights

• University of Queensland study identifies information control—not just physical resources—as decisive power in the critical minerals economy, analyzing disinformation across 15 global case studies.
• China's 80%+ rare earth processing dominance is reinforced by strategic narrative control, opaque data, and environmental omissions while competing projects face targeted misinformation.
• Research reframes supply chain challenge: information integrity is the hidden bottleneck affecting capital allocation, risk pricing, and Western diversification efforts.

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A new peer-reviewed study led by Vlado Vivoda (opens in a new tab) of the University of Queensland (opens in a new tab) ( Sustainable Minerals Institute (opens in a new tab)), with collaborators Lachlan Nieboer and Rowan Bisshop, published in The Extractive Industries and Society (opens in a new tab), offers one of the clearest diagnoses yet of a hidden force shaping the critical minerals economy.

The paper argues that control over information—not just mines, refineries, or capital—has become a decisive source of power. Drawing on 15 global case studies spanning rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, the authors show how disinformation, selective omission, and greenwashing actively influence public trust, policy outcomes, and capital allocation—reinforcing entrenched advantages, most notably China’s dominance in rare earth processing.

Mapping the Battle for Perception

Rather than focusing on geology, reserves, or trade flows, the researchers examine how narratives are constructed, amplified, and weaponized across governments, corporations, communities, and criminal networks.

Integrating political ecology, international relations, and science-and-technology studies, the team develops a first-of-its-kind typology of “narrative manipulation,” including geopolitical disinformation, ESG distortion, criminal obfuscation, and community-level misinformation. Fifteen empirical vignettes—from Malaysia and Myanmar to Serbia, Chile, and the United States—ground the framework in real-world conflicts shaping permits, financing, and legitimacy.

Why China’s Advantage Persists

For rare earths, the implications are stark. China’s dominance—controlling more than 80% of global processing—has not been sustained by scale and subsidies alone. The study finds it is reinforced by strategic omission and narrative control: environmental damage from historic mining is downplayed, key data remain opaque, and rare earths are framed as an inevitable pillar of national destiny.

At the same time, competing projects outside China are frequently slowed by reputational attacks, exaggerated ESG claims, or targeted misinformation aimed at local communities—raising permitting risk, delaying financing, and discouraging investors.

Information asymmetry, the authors conclude, is not accidental. It is structural—and it consistently advantages incumbents operating behind opaque systems.

Why This Matters for Investors and Policymakers

The paper reframes the rare earth challenge. The bottleneck is not only mines or refineries—it is information integrity. Markets react to narratives before spreadsheets. When scarcity stories are inflated or sustainability claims selectively curated, capital is misallocated, risks are mispriced, and strategic dependencies harden. For Western supply-chain diversification, failing to confront narrative warfare leaves even technically sound, well-funded projects exposed.

Limitations and Points of Debate

The investigation is qualitative rather than a statistical audit of misinformation volumes or price impacts. While geographically broad, its case selection cannot cover every mineral or jurisdiction. Critics may argue the framework risks attributing strategic intent where confusion or poor communication also play roles. The authors are explicit, however: not all misinformation is malicious—but its consequences are material.

REEx Perspective: The Hidden Bottleneck

Rare Earth Exchanges™ views this study as a warning. Breaking China’s rare earth monopoly will require more than capital, chemistry, and capacity. As we have repeatedly covered, it will require transparency, independent verification, and disciplined narrative control. Could it be the case at last at time in today’s critical minerals market, whoever controls the story often controls the mine?

Citation: Vivoda, V., Nieboer, L., Bisshop, R. Narrative warfare in critical minerals: Information manipulation and governance challenges. The Extractive Industries and Society, Vol. 25, March 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exis.2025.101798 (opens in a new tab)

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