Highlights
- China systematically implements export restrictions on critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and rare earth technologies as part of a strategic ‘lawfare’ approach.
- The National Bureau of Asian Research warns that China’s export control regime is designed to counter U.S. tech restrictions and undermine global supply chains.
- The U.S. must rapidly invest in domestic rare earth mining, processing, and manufacturing to counter China’s long-term economic strategy.
In a sweeping January 2025 special report (opens in a new tab), the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) delivered (opens in a new tab) a prescient warning: China’s tightening grip on rare earth and critical mineral exports—especially gallium, germanium, graphite, and REE magnet technologies—was no accident. It was part of a calculated “lawfare” strategy aimed squarely at the United States and its allies.
Now, after President Trump launched the tariff war, China’s April 2025 export controls have been updated to target rare earth technologies used in military systems, which has become a strategic crisis. Despite bilateral talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in May, Beijing continues to escalate its export restrictions, undermining global supply chains and reinforcing its control over dual-use materials essential to everything from missiles to wind turbines.
The January report, co-authored by Emma M. Rafaelof, Taylore A. Roth, Mykael SooTho, and John VerWey of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, (opens in a new tab) the NBR report (Special Report #115) exposed how China has formalized its export control regime to mirror and counter U.S. tech restrictions. Since 2023, China has methodically deployed new licensing and outright bans—initially on gallium and germanium, then expanding to graphite, antimony, and rare earth processing technologies. Crucially, the report flagged rare earth permanent magnet production—specifically neodymium and samarium-cobalt—as next-in-line targets. That prediction proved accurate when, in April 2025, China banned the export of specific rare earth “preparation technologies” under the guise of national security and nonproliferation.
REEx condemns the gross negligence of the U.S. political class, which has failed to act on over a decade of bipartisan warnings. While President Trump’s 2025 tariffs on Chinese goods are a defensive maneuver, they are arriving years too late. The true cost of delay is now materializing as U.S. defense contractors, EV makers, and energy firms scramble for supply chain alternatives.
As the NBR report shows, China is playing the long game—and doing so with precision. Suppose the United States is serious about industrial sovereignty. In that case, it must fast-track investment in domestic REE mining, separation, and magnet manufacturing, including rare earth stockpiling and full-spectrum processing capabilities. The time for speeches is over. This is economic warfare, and America is already behind. Retail investors will be paramount in contributing to resilience financing, and they deserve industrial policy backing.
Discuss More in the Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) Forum (opens in a new tab)
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