Highlights:
- Most rare earths (including NdPr oxide) are exempt from Trump’s latest tariffs, for now.
- Current U.S. tariffs on Chinese NdPr oxide total 44% — increasing the landed price from $60/kg to $86.40/kg.
- A future 25% Biden tariff targeting magnets (not oxides yet) could push that to $101.40/kg if expanded.
- China has retaliated with reciprocal tariffs and bans on some heavy rare earths.
- The looming threat: China banning NdPr exports, a “nuclear elephant on crack in the room.”
Where We Are Now
After diving into the recently announced Trump tariffs, it's clear that while many Chinese imports are being hit, a broad range of critical minerals and rare earth elements — including NdPr oxide — have been exempted.
| Rare Earth Element | HTS Code | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Scandium | 2805.30.00 | Rare-earth metals, scandium and yttrium, whether or not intermixed or interalloyed. |
| Yttrium | 2805.30.00 | Rare-earth metals, scandium and yttrium, whether or not intermixed or interalloyed. |
| Lanthanum | 2846.90.20.05 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, containing lanthanum as the predominant metal. |
| Cerium Oxides | 2846.10.00.10 | Cerium oxides. |
| Praseodymium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Neodymium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Samarium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Europium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Gadolinium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Terbium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Dysprosium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Holmium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Erbium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Thulium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Ytterbium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
| Lutetium | 2846.90.20.40 | Mixtures of rare-earth oxides or of rare-earth chlorides, other. |
Additional Notes:
- Cerium Oxides: Specifically classified under HTS code 2846.10.00.10.
- Lanthanum Compounds: Compounds primarily consisting of lanthanum are under HTS code 2846.90.20.05.
- Other REEs: For rare-earth elements that do not have a specific listing, HTS code2846.90.20.40 is used for mixtures of oxides orchlorides.
This carve-out acknowledges the U.S.'s continued dependence on Chinese rare earth supply. The exemptions allow supply chains to function — for now — without severe cost shocks in sectors like EVs, defense, and wind energy.
Current U.S. Tariffs on NdPr Oxide (2025)
Assuming a base price of US$60 per kg, here’s how current tariffs apply:
| Tariff Type | Rate | Value ($) |
|---|---|---|
| Base Price | — | $60.00 |
| 10% General Tariff (2025) | 10% | $6.00 |
| 34% Reciprocal Tariff (2025) | 34% | $20.40 |
| Total Landed Cost (2025) | — | $86.40/kg |
These tariffs are non-compounded, meaning each is applied to the original base price rather than stacking on top of each other.
2026 Biden Tariff — For Now, Just Magnets
In 2026, a 25% tariff will apply to Chinese-made permanent magnets, including those using NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron). If — and that’s a big if — this tariff ever extends to raw NdPr oxide, the landed cost would jump further:
| Additional Tariff | Rate | Value ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 25% Biden Rare Earths Tariff | 25% | $15.00 |
| Total with Biden Tariff (2026) | — | $101.40/kg |
But right now, NdPr oxide remains untouched by that tariff — the target is finished magnets, part of a push to onshore strategic manufacturing.
But China Isn’t Sitting Still...
Here’s where it gets messy. In retaliation, China has implemented its own 34% reciprocal tariffs and begun banning exports of certain heavy rare earths, like samarium and gadolinium.
This is a major escalation. While NdPr hasn't been hit — yet — the big nuclear elephant on crack in the room is this.
Will China put export controls or a ban on NdPr?
If that happens, it could trigger an industrial panic in Western supply chains. NdPr is critical to EV motors, defense tech, and wind turbines. Losing access would spark stockpiling, price spikes, and possibly even emergency U.S. action.
Where Does This End?
There’s no easy off-ramp. Trump won’t back down, especially in an election year. And China won’t let tariff escalation go unanswered.
The world is walking a geopolitical tightrope over magnets and motor metals.
Whether you're a buyer, supplier, or investor — now is the time to:
- Secure alternative sources outside China.
- Monitor tariffs and policy changes closely.
- Prepare for the very real possibility of NdPr supply shocks.
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