Highlights

• The US and UAE signed a framework to cooperate on critical minerals and rare earths.
• This partnership leverages American policy tools with Emirati investment capital to reduce dependence on China's dominance in mining and processing.
• China holds 70% of the mining and 90% of the processing control over these resources.
• The agreement is strategic but currently lacks concrete projects, such as named mines, tonnage commitments, or separation plants.
• Realistic timelines for building processing capacity are estimated at 5-7 years, even with funding.
• Gulf capital's speed and flexibility could potentially change the financing landscape for Western rare earth projects.
• However, financial investments alone won't solve the chemical and capacity challenges needed to reduce China's influence.

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The United States and the United Arab Emirates have signed a framework to cooperate on critical minerals and rare earths, aiming to reduce reliance on China. Announced during a Washington ministerial hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the deal links U.S. tools, such as stockpiles, to the UAE’s strategic reserves and investment capacity. It builds on Pax Silica, a U.S.-led alliance focused on AI-related supply chains that the UAE joined earlier this year. In short, Washington brings policy, Abu Dhabi brings capital, and both hope to speed up non-Chinese supply chains.

What’s Real—and Worth Noting

This is a framework, not a treaty or project announcement. That matters. The agreement commits the two governments to coordinate policy, align public and private investment, and use existing tools to accelerate supply and processing. There are no named mines, no tonnage commitments, and no new separation plants—yet.

Still, the strategic intent is accurate and significant. China remains dominant—roughly 70% of rare earth mining and about 90% of processing—and U.S.officials now openly frame this as a national security risk. TheUAE’s role is not as a miner but as a financial and logistics hub, capable of deploying large, patient capital where Western projects often stall.

Where Optimism Runs Ahead of Physics

What the coverage gets right—but could emphasize more—is the time problem. Processing and separation capacity cannot be conjured by frameworks. Even with capital, building refineries, training operators, and achieving stable yields typically takes five to seven years. Stockpiles and forums buy time; they do not replace chemistry.

The newly announced FORGE initiative (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) sounds muscular, but enforcement mechanisms remain undefined. Without downstream buildout, coordination risks becoming declarative.

Why This Matters in Rare Earth Terms

The notable shift is in who shows up with money. Gulf capital—fast, flexible, and comfortable with long-duration bets—could shorten timelines for allied projects if paired with processing assets in the U.S. or friendly jurisdictions. That does not end China’s dominance, but it changes the financing equation, which has quietly been the West’s weakest link.

About the Source

The National is an Abu Dhabi–based English-language daily with strong access to Gulf policy and investment circles. Its reporting is generally pro-development and establishment-aligned—useful for understanding intent, while warranting scrutiny on execution.

REEx Take

This pact won’t crack China’srare earth grip overnight. But it signals something new: serious capital stepping onto the board. In rare earths, money doesn’t solve chemistry—but it decides who gets the chance to try.

Source: The National (UAE)