Highlights
- China’s export controls on rare earth minerals threaten 78% of U.S. weapons systems, creating massive military supply chain vulnerabilities.
- 88% of critical mineral chains currently pass through Chinese refinement, compromising U.S. strategic defense capabilities.
- Without aggressive domestic mining, refinement, and stockpiling strategies, America’s military deterrence could be defined by elemental scarcity.
A new report (opens in a new tab) by Patrick Tucker (opens in a new tab) for Defense One highlights a rapidly escalating threat: the Pentagon’s overwhelming dependency on China for rare earths and critical minerals now imperils U.S. military readiness. As Beijing enforces sweeping export controls on seven vital rare earths—including samarium, dysprosium, and yttrium—more than 78% of U.S. weapons systems face supply chain disruptions, according to Govini data analytics. From radars to armor-piercing rounds, critical technologies embedded across 1,900 weapon platforms are deeply entangled with Chinese refinement and material supply.
The average American must be wondering: How did our leadership let this happen over the past couple of decades? It’s a really good question.
The vulnerability extends far beyond mining. While the U.S. has raw mineral potential, 88% of critical mineral chains pass through Chinese refinement bottlenecks. Even minerals extracted in allied countries like Australia become compromised when processed in China.
Prices for components containing gallium and antimony have already increased by 6% and 4.5%, respectively, since the earlier export bans in December 2024, underscoring the financial and strategic risks of continued dependence.
Defense One’s coverage accurately portrays China’s deliberate weaponization of critical minerals—a pattern first visible during its 2010 export crackdown on Japan. Wasn’t this a wake-up call for the elite establishment in the United States 15 years ago?
The Defense One piece underplays internal U.S. bureaucratic obstacles that have stymied previous attempts at rare earth supply chain independence. Despite recent investments, such as Utah’s Kennecott mine, and new efforts to recover germanium and gallium from Tennessee zinc byproducts, regulatory hurdles and permit delays still leave the U.S. vulnerable.
In parallel with domestic mining revival, AI-driven supply chain mapping, mineral “companionability” strategies, and urgent strategic stockpiling are being recommended. Yet stark gaps remain, as gallium, tellurium, and magnesium lack U.S. government stockpiles even today. Without aggressive acceleration across these fronts, America’s strategic deterrence risks being defined not by troop strength or funding, but by elemental scarcity—and Chinese leverage over it.
Some Key Elements/Minerals
| Mineral | Key Military Use | U.S. Dependency on China | Stockpile Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | Radars, GPS, semiconductors | 100% (No domestic production) | No stockpile |
| Dysprosium | Permanent magnets for stealth, missiles | 90%+ | Minimal stockpile |
| Samarium | Laser-guided weapons | 90%+ | Minimal stockpile |
| Antimony | Armor-piercing munitions, batteries | 80%+ | Very limited reserves |
| Germanium | Infrared optics, satellites | 85% | No stockpile |
| Tungsten | Armor, kinetic energy penetrators | 60%+ | Low reserves |
| Tellurium | Solar panels, infrared devices | 75%+ | No significant reserve |
| Magnesium | Aircraft frames, missiles | 87% (dominated by China—supply chain) | No significant reserve |
Some recent USA milestones:
- Mining: Expansion of Kennecott (Utah) for tellurium; Tennessee zinc mines for gallium/germanium.
- Refinement: Still no domestic capacity for gallium, germanium, tungsten.
- Strategic Stockpiles: Only antimony has minor reserves. No meaningful gallium, germanium, or tellurium stockpiles.
- AI & Data Initiatives: DARPA and Hyperspectral (opens in a new tab) mapping of critical mineral byproducts across the industrial base.
Note America’s defense future hangs on 8-10 critical minerals. Without emergency actions beyond current slow-moving reforms and what, unfortunately, REEx suspects is not enough in recent Executive Orders, Chinese leverage over elemental bottlenecks could continue to define U.S. military limits for at least three more years or more.
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