Highlights

• U.S. and Canada lead a $6.4B+ investment push across:
  • Mining
  • Refining
  • Magnet manufacturing
• Financing deals and grants:
  • EXIM financing for REAlloys and Pensana-Angola
  • DOE grants for Wyoming and wastewater extraction projects
• Strategic partnerships span continents:
  • U.S.-Japan tech transfer via JOGMEC-REAlloys
  • Australia's Yangibana-Ucore Louisiana plant
  • Emerging U.S.-Brazil mining talks
• Market bifurcation:
  • Western buyers pay 15-30% premiums for non-Chinese supply
  • Long-term contracts with price floors and take-or-pay clauses
  • China retains 85%+ control of refining and export leverage

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This week delivered a flurry of developments across the global rare-earth supply chain, underscoring how the ex-China market—still in its infancy—is gathering unstoppable momentum. The United States, under President Donald Trump, has emerged as the key catalyst, engineering a fragile but strategic reset: Beijing agreed to revert to its April 2025 export control rules, rolling back the harsher October 7 measures. It’s far from ideal, but it buys Washington a year to regroup and rebuild its supply-chain footing. Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) has gone on the record that one year is by no where nearly enough time. Europe, by contrast, mostly watched from the sidelines—its rhetoric on “strategic autonomy” unaccompanied by decisive market moves. Canada, meanwhile, took center stage with a sweeping, G7-backed investment package spanning mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing. The takeaway is clear: in the ongoing recalibration of power between Washington and Beijing, China still sits firmly in the diplomatic driver’s seat, steering the tempo of global rare-earth and critical-mineral negotiations even as Western nations race to diversify away from it.

In North America

The U.S. and Canada continued to shore up non-Chinese supply.

Notably, Canada and its G‑7 partners pledged ~C$6.4 billion to boost mining and processing projects. For example, Canada’s government awarded Ucore Rare Metals C$36.3 million to build North America’s first samarium/gadolinium refinery, and Rio Tinto won C$25 million for a scandium plant in Québec.

In turn, U.S. agencies moved to finance downstream processing: the U.S. Export-Import Bank issued a letter of interest, per Reuters (opens in a new tab), for a $200 million loan to REAlloys Inc. (Ohio/Saskatchewan) to build RE refining and magnet plants, and EXIM is also considering $160 million for Pensana’s Longonjo (Angola) mine as part of a “mine-to-magnet” pact with VAC/eVAC in South Carolina.

Ramaco Resources (a U.S. coal miner-turned-REE explorer) raised $200 million equity this year and now has $272 million on hand, bolstering its DOE-supported Pilot Oxide Facility in Wyoming. DOE’s ARPA-E program likewise funded innovation: Massachusetts startup Phoenix Tailings won an ARPA-E RECOVER grant to extract REEs from wastewater and mine effluent.

In Europe

Governments announced new strategies but few immediate deals. EU leaders unveiled a “RESourceEU” plan to curb China dependence (opens in a new tab) – accelerating joint purchasing, stockpiling and domestic processing projects.

Private industry moved ahead: Canada’s Neo Performance Materials opened a $75 million NdFeB magnet plant in Estonia (the first in Europe) with €18.7 million in EU grants (opens in a new tab). Neo immediately signed offtake contracts with German auto suppliers Schaeffler and Bosch, covering a significant portion of future output. (No major new downstream magnet deals were announced in Europe this week, though earlier Pensana–VAC and GM–Noveon JVs illustrate the trend of EU companies aligning with U.S. partners to feed American magnet plants.)

Asia/Oceania

Saw several strategic pacts (opens in a new tab) (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Japan—announced by the White House and covered by REEx. The U.S. and Japan signed a rare-earth framework on Oct. 28 to coordinate mining and processing support, as cited by REEx. Under this, Japan’s government agency JOGMEC inked its first U.S. rare-earth partnership: an MOU with REAlloys to transfer Japanese separation and NdFeB magnet technology to REAlloys’ Saskatchewan (processing) and Ohio (alloy/magnet) plants.

The alliance includes JOGMEC-backed financing for REAlloys’ projects and long-term offtakes of heavy-REE feed (e.g., scandium/yttrium) for Japanese users. On the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, the U.S. secured commitments from Malaysia and Thailand to keep critical mineral exports flowing (Malaysia agreed not to ban or impose a quota on REE exports to the U.S.).

Analysts caution that without allied midstream capacity, this risks a “dig-and-dump” cycle – shipping ores out and importing magnets from China. India announced policy steps (a two-month strategic REE stockpile and incentives for domestic magnet plants), but no new trade deals this week. See REEx.

In Australia, Wyloo/Hastings’ Yangibana rare-earth project (with high NdPr grades) signed a non-binding heads-of-agreement with Canada’s Ucore: Ucore will evaluate a Louisiana hydromet plant (opens in a new tab) to process Yangibana concentrate into a mixed rare-earth carbonate for its RapidSX® separation complex. This U.S.–Australia HoA (announced Oct. 31) directly responds to the US‑Australia Critical Minerals Framework, tying an Australian mine to U.S. processing and financing.

Africa (and emerging markets)

Featured one headline deal: UK-listed Pensana’s Longonjo mine in Angola is set to become the centerpiece of the first U.S.-anchored “mine-to-magnet” chain outside China. The U.S. EXIM Bank’s $160 million LOI to Pensana (pending final approval) would fund 100% of the mine’s debt, enabling NdPr oxides to flow to VAC’s new South Carolina magnet plant under a 5-year offtake. If realized, this links Angolan mining, Canadian and U.S. refining, and U.S. magnet manufacturing in one integrated supply line. (No new deals in other African countries were reported this week; news on Kenya’s Mrima Hill deposit remains speculative and unconfirmed.)

South America

There is emerging activity in South America this week worth noting. In Brazil, the U.S. Charge d’Affaires in Brasília, Gabriel Escobar (opens in a new tab), held meetings on October 28, 2025 with Brazilian mining executives to explore REE partnerships and supply-chain diversification. These discussions—occurring in Salvador, Bahia—signaled U.S. interest in leveraging Brazil’s large REE reserves (estimated ~21 million t) for non-China sources of critical minerals.

Although no formal joint-venture, financing or offtake deal was announced in Brazil this week, the significance is high: Brazil holds attractive resource depth but minimal downstream processing capacity, so the virtue of a U.S.–Brazil collaboration is potential value-chain integration from mine to market. Analysts caution, however, that Brazil’s infrastructure and refining capabilities are still underdeveloped, meaning any meaningful supply contribution remains years away.

China & Market Dynamics

Beijing paused its October export controls for one year (the new licensing rules announced Oct. 9) but kept April’s heavy-REE restrictions (for dysprosium, terbium, NdFeB magnets, etc.) in force as we discussed at REEx. In practice, heavy REEs and permanent-magnet exports to the West remain constrained, unfortunately. One result: Western buyers are now paying a premium for guaranteed non-Chinese supply. Long-term ex-China offtake contracts (typically 5–10 years) often include price floors, take-or-pay clauses, indexed cost adjustments, and even equity from customers.

Of course, July’s MP Materials magnet contract has a $110/kg NdPr oxide floor. Industry sources report that end-users will pay 15–30% above prevailing prices (and even a higher premium) for supply outside China to lock in security. This bifurcated market – high “ex-China” prices versus lower Chinese spot prices – is now well established, or at least is unfolding in a serious way.

In summary, most new announcements reflect governments underwriting allied mining and processing to break China’s monopoly (e.g., price guarantees and financing support), but analysts warn these moves are just beginning and China’s control of >85% of refining and magnet output remains the structural bottleneck.

Outlook

In short, confirmed deals (financings, JVs, LOIs) dominated the headlines this week. A strong U.S. and allied push – via EXIM loans, DOE grants, and government-backed consortia – is underway to finance new mines and midstream plants. At the same time, the market price dynamics have shifted: long-term contracts now carry price floors and a 15–30% premium (and in some cases, maybe more) for non-Chinese rare earths. So far, most firms and governments cite confirmed agreements and funding commitments rather than pure speculation (even when media hype emerges, as in Kenya this week). The overall picture is one of accelerating investment in ex-China supply chains – but with many caveats that building refining/processing capacity will take years, and China’s export curbs still hold heavy leverage according to REEx analyses.