Highlights
- MP Materials' Saudi Arabia processing deal raises questions about whether America is rebuilding domestic rare earth capacity or outsourcing strategic refining to allies.
- India commits $816M to build 6,000 tonnes/year of magnet production by the early 2030s.
- China maintains dominant pricing power with dysprosium oxide commanding $900/kg in Rotterdam vs ~$255/kg domestically, while launching platinum/palladium futures that blueprint a potential rare earth financialization strategy.
- Africa advances with Rainbow Rare Earths achieving 99.5% pure NdPr through conventional refining.
- Western buyers adopt defensive contracts with floor prices and take-or-pay clauses to secure non-Chinese supply amid persistent heavy REE scarcity.
The rare earth world didn’t sleep just because North America took a long weekend. And the team at Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) wishes a Happy Thanksgiving to the world. While Washington carved turkey, New Delhi wrote checks, Johannesburg de-risked chemistry, and Beijing quietly reminded everyone who still holds the real leverage.
MP Materials sits at the apex of America’s rare-earth revival—once the embodiment of the “mine-to-magnet” future—now inking a processing deal with Saudi Arabia. Is this meant to survive the bottleneck it was supposed to break? The irony is sharp: MP’s brilliant execution and integrated success may now expose it to future geopolitical vulnerabilities just as Washington enters a turbulent phase of rare-earth statecraft.
What does the Ma’aden deal really represent? Yes—an oxide refinery in the desert. But also possibly a referendum on whether the U.S. is rebuilding an industrial base, or outsourcing it one tranche at a time. With DoD equity support, $150M for heavy-REE refining, and $1B in debt access, REEx will monitor this closely.
REEx also interviewed Phoenix Tailings last week—video coming soon. A brilliant, committed U.S. team producing oxide-to-metal materials at commercial scale. They deserve their flowers.
Table of Contents
North America
MP Materials’ Saudi Pivot
Washington’s narrative says America is in a “good position,” but the market says otherwise. MP’s Saudi expansion raises questions about whether the U.S. is anchoring strategic capacity at home or distributing it abroad. The Ma’aden deal may either diversify global supply—or mark the moment America outsourced the very capacity it aimed to restore.
A Quiet Week for U.S. and Canada
No major financings or facility announcements landed this week. But the fundamental gap remains: no domestic heavy REE supply. Instead, companies lean on allies like Germany’s VAC, which has signed heavy-oxide offtakes with Torngat Metals (Canada) and Aclara (Brazil) for its South Carolina magnet plant.
Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies secured over $1B in downstream financing, while Brazilian Rare Earths advances a refining strategy with France-based Carester.
South America
Brazil’s Emerging Refining Strategy
Brazilian Rare Earths continues ramping an onshore refining program on the northeast Atlantic coast, partnering with Carester—the most sophisticated ex-China refining expertise in the market today.
Europe
Talk, Not Term Sheets
Europe produced sharp rhetoric but few deals. EU industry chief Stéphane Séjourné warned Europe must “up its game.” China may have paused additional export limits, but hasn’t increased shipments. Meanwhile, projects like Solvay’s La Rochelle plant are seeing more interest from U.S. offtakers than European ones.
Brussels is discussing joint stockpiles, faster permits, and price supports—but investors still see policy speeches, not financial commitments.
Asia
India Slams the Accelerator
New Delhi approved a ₹72.8B (~$816M) plan to build a full rare earth permanent magnet supply chain:
- Five plants selected via global bids
- 6,000 t/y NdFeB magnet capacity
- A seven-year sector roadmap
India wants near-zero magnet imports by the early 2030s. For OEMs betting on India as “China-plus-one,” this is supply-chain insurance—not just industrial policy.
Southeast Asia
Malaysia’s Environmental Reckoning
Malaysia’s rare earth sector faced turbulence when a company linked to the Southern Alliance Mine (SAM) was ordered to suspend operations after the Perak River turned bright blue. Radiation levels exceeded allowable limits. REEx notes SAM’s COO Wei Hung Lim has always been responsive and cooperative.
DTEC MMT’s Bridge Strategy
Into this environment steps DTEC MMT—a half-American, half-Malay venture seeking to connect Malaysian concentrates and refined oxides directly to U.S. buyers. Its model is promising but fragile: any environmental missteps could undermine Malaysian ambitions and threaten American confidence. After Trump’s MOU with Malaysia, U.S. follow-through will be essential.
Africa
Rainbow Rare Earths De-Risks Phalaborwa
Rainbow’s switch to solvent extraction yielded 99.5% pure NdPr and SEG oxides—transforming a chemistry experiment into a bankable flowsheet that buyers and lenders can trust.
Pensana Expands in Angola
Pensana launched a major drilling program at Longonjo, aiming to lift the resource above 1B tonnes. REEx appreciates their localization-first method—an approach that integrates Angolan stakeholders from the outset.
Nigeria’s First Refinery
Privately owned Hasetins Commodities reportedly launched Nigeria’s first rare earth refinery. Details are limited, but the symbolism is meaningful for Africa’s refining ambitions.
Kenya’s Mrima Hill Still in Play
Kenya continues to delay extraction decisions as it completes data and community consultations. Mrima Hill remains one of the world’s great undeveloped deposits.
Across the continent, governments are signaling: “value-add or don’t bother knocking.”
Middle East
Saudi Arabia Wants to Be the New Chokepoint
The Saudi–U.S.–MP Materials JV is now formal:
- Ma’aden owns 51%
- MP + U.S. DoD own 49%
- A major oxide refinery is planned in Saudi Arabia
MP confirmed it is exploring magnet manufacturing in the Kingdom.
For allies, this is diversification.
For critics (including REEx), it raises a blunt question:
Why is the world’s tightest processing bottleneck being offshored instead of anchored in the U.S.?
China
Pricing Power and Futures-Control Strategy
Baotou market data shows:
- 7 of 9 RE products fell month-over-month
- But cerium oxide rose to 11,250 yuan/ton (+56.3% YoY)
- 8 of 9 rare earths remain up year-over-year
China continues to set the price board through policy, inventory, and vertically integrated supply chains.
Building the Financial Architecture
China launched platinum and palladium futures on GFEX—likely a dry run for rare earth futures. With RMB pricing and sponge delivery, Beijing is positioning itself to shape global pricing expectations for NdPr, Dy, and Tb.
Persistent Export Controls
The current export-control regime holds, even if the harsher second wave is paused. Beijing can tighten the valve whenever it chooses.
The Price Reality
- Dysprosium oxide: ~$900/kg in Rotterdam vs ~$255/kg in China
- NdPr oxide: 15–30%+ “China-free premium”
- Western offtakes now include:
- Floor prices
- Take-or-pay guarantees
- Government-backed contracts-for-difference
These tools aim to make ex-China projects bankable in a world where China still dominates heavy REE separation and magnet manufacturing.
Conclusion
Could China still supply 90% of the world’s heavy rare earths by 2030? The answer depends on narrative—but the math is sobering. India’s huge checks, Rainbow’s flowsheet breakthrough, Saudi’s refinery aspirations, and North American alliances are promising, but they are early moves in a long game.
The market is splitting into two worlds:
- Inside China: cheaper, efficient, risky
- Outside China: expensive, strategic, slower but accelerating
The race isn’t just to build new mines or magnets—it’s to buy enough time before the next squeeze.
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