Highlights

• China controls 90% of rare earth processing and implemented new export controls on 12 of 17 rare earth elements, creating strategic leverage but not a complete supply cutoff.
• Fortune's article outlines dramatic U.S. retaliation options (blocking aerospace exports, denying software, SWIFT sanctions) but these remain largely hypothetical speculation.
• The trade standoff is accelerating global efforts to diversify rare earth supply chains away from China's monopoly, turning obscure minerals into strategic assets overnight.

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Rare earth elements have become pawns in the U.S.-China trade chess match. Fortune’s weekend piece (opens in a new tab) claims President Trump can hit Beijing “where it really hurts” in response to China’s rare earth export curbs, and that Xi’s gambit may backfire. How much of this narrative is solid fact versus speculative bravado? Our supply chain analysis finds out.

Rare Earth Reality Check

China’s dominance in rare earths is indisputable – it processes roughly 90% of the world’s rare earth materials. Beijing’s new export controls certainly spooked tech markets, but the curbs are narrower than the worst-case scenarios. Rather than a blanket ban that cripples the modern economy, the rules focus on specific strategic minerals and related technologies, tightening licensing for about 12 of the 17 rare earth elements. It’s a serious squeeze (essentially making China’s grip more “airtight” in key areas) – but not an all-out chokehold cutting off global access.

Brinkmanship or Bluster?

Fortune lays out a U.S. retaliation playbook verging on economic warfare. Possible moves include blocking aircraft and aerospace exports, denying software updates (most Chinese PCs run Windows), tightening chip tech embargoes (Western firms control ~70% of China’s chip design software), and wielding the dollar as a weapon (sanctioning Chinese firms and freezing them out of SWIFT). These steps would hurt – if they ever happened.

So far, they’re hypothetical. At least some prominent investors are betting Trump won’t go nuclear (“TACO” – Trump Always Chickens Out), and indeed he quickly dialed back his 100% tariff threat as “not sustainable.” In short, Fortune’s dramatic counterstrike scenarios are intriguing but remain speculative.

Fortune’s Framing and the Fallout

The Fortune piece leans toward highlighting U.S. strengths and China’s missteps, while downplaying how much leverage Beijing still holds. Yes, China’s rare earth gambit could backfire by spurring harsher U.S. measures – but it also underscores the West’s reliance on Chinese supply.

This standoff is a wake-up call. Rare earths have gone from obscure minerals to strategic assets overnight, and nations are scrambling to diversify supply chains away from China. The real takeaway: control of these resources equals leverage. The current clash is accelerating efforts to end China’s monopoly grip – adding urgency to building secure rare earth supply chains.

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