Highlights
- Global rare earth permanent magnet market projected to grow to $9.19 billion by 2036.
- CAGR of 3.9% expected between 2026-2036.
- China currently dominates the market with 69% of rare earth mining.
- Over 90% of magnet production is based in China, creating urgency for Western diversification.
- Market growth driven by:
- Electric vehicles
- Wind turbines
- Humanoid robotics
- Data centers
- Increasing focus on magnet recycling technologies.
A new 366-slide report by IDTechEx (opens in a new tab) forecasts that the global rare earth permanent magnet market—anchored by neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) and samarium-cobalt (SmCo) technologies—will grow to exceed $9.19 billion in annual revenue by 2036, fueled by electric vehicles, wind turbines, humanoid robotics, and data centers. But while the market outlook appears bullish, Rare Earth Exchanges finds that several assumptions warrant scrutiny.
Headwinds Under the Hood
IDTechEx predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% between 2026 and 2036, supported by rising demand in electrification and automation. The report rightly spotlights China’s near-monopoly, noting that China commands 69% of rare earth mining and over 90% of downstream magnet production in 2025. The April 2025 export restrictions on dysprosium, terbium, and NdFeB only add urgency for Western diversification.
The report also makes a compelling case for the growing importance of magnet recycling, predicting a 6.5x increase by 2036 and a 10% contribution to global supply.
However, Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) notes that the recycling forecast—while promising—may be overly optimistic. Most magnet-containing components have long life cycles, and efficient, large-scale magnet collection systems remain underdeveloped. Without substantial improvement in end-of-life magnet harvesting, short-loop recycling capacity may outpace available feedstock for years to come.
What’s Credible, What’s Cloudy
The report excels in mapping the entire rare earth magnet value chain: from mining to solvent extraction, magnet assembly, and emerging players scaling both primary and secondary refining. IDTechEx also provides valuable benchmarking of magnet technologies, including innovation in thrifting to reduce heavy rare earth usage.
Yet one area that raises questions is the apparent underweighting of geopolitical instability and market volatility. The analysis assumes relatively smooth capital deployment into magnet recycling and separation technologies, despite rising tensions in the South China Sea and Myanmar border regions, both of which are critical to supply continuity.
Moreover, the report appears to use consistent CAGR forecasting across very different application verticals—EVs, AI robotics, data centers—without sufficiently accounting for varying market saturation points or potential material substitution in motors or actuators.
Final Word for Investors
IDTechEx’s research confirms that rare earth magnets remain mission-critical to the global energy transition and digital infrastructure. Retail and institutional investors should pay attention to growth in U.S. and EU midstream capacity, new recycling startups, and evolving government procurement incentives. But a cautious eye should be kept on feasibility timelines, recycling bottlenecks, and the still-fragile diversification away from Chinese control.
Source: IDTechEx, Rare Earth Magnets 2026–2036: Technologies, Supply, Markets, Forecasts, authored by Dr. Jack Howley, Dr. James Edmondson, and Yulin Wang. Published July 2025.
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