Highlights

• The F-35 program faces significant delays and cost overruns.
• There are potential vulnerabilities in rare earth supply chains.
• China controls approximately 85% of global rare earth separation capacity, creating potential strategic leverage.
• US efforts are critical to developing non-Chinese rare earth supply chains to protect defense and industrial programs.

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It is accurate that the U.S. F-35 program—already the world’s most expensive weapons platform—is running years behind schedule. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) confirmed in a September 3 report that Lockheed Martin’s Block 4 upgrade is over budget by at least US$6 billion and is now projected for completion no earlier than 2031. Delays to the “Technology Refresh 3” package, valued at US$1.9 billion, have indeed slowed aircraft deliveries. These are hard, verifiable facts.

Where Rare Earths Enter the Frame

The South China Morning Post (opens in a new tab) (SCMP) article suggests China’s grip on rare earths could be contributing to these delays. Here, the ground is shakier. While it’s true that China dominates global rare earth mining and processing—accounting for around 85% of separation capacity—there is no public evidence linking Beijing’s supply leverage directly to F-35 program slippages. Most U.S. setbacks have been driven by internal program management and software bottlenecks, not explicit rare earth shortages.

The Spin Factor

By framing delays as potentially tied to rare earth supply, the piece leans into geopolitical drama, a common SCMP narrative device. This elevates China’s leverage while hinting that Washington is already paying the price. Such framing risks overstating the immediacy of rare earth vulnerabilities. The U.S. has stockpiles and has funded domestic efforts—though far behind demand—to mitigate reliance. Investors should note: speculation here may exaggerate short-term risk while obscuring the long-term reality that China does hold systemic leverage if it chooses to tighten exports of heavy rare earths critical for defense magnets.

Why It Matters for Supply Chains

The real signal buried in the noise is not that rare earth choke points cause F-35 delays—it’s that they could be, if Beijing ever weaponized its dominance. This makes ongoing U.S. efforts—from DoD funding for magnet supply chains to partnerships with Lynas, MP Materials, and ReElement—strategically vital. The F-35 story highlights a broader truth: Western defense and industrial programs are exposed until viable non-Chinese rare earth supply chains are scaled.

Closing Note

SCMP’s reporting blends fact with speculative flourish. Investors and policymakers should read such pieces as reminders of vulnerability, not proof of causation. The real urgency lies in how quickly the U.S. and allies can build credible heavy rare earth independence before delays shift from self-inflicted to Beijing-imposed.

Citation: Zhang Tong, South China Morning Post, “Is China’s rare earths policy frustrating US upgrades to the F-35 stealth jet?” September 11, 2025.

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